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Dwarkesh Podcast / episode intelligence

Gwern — Anonymous writer who predicted AI trajectory on $12K/year salary

13 Nov 2024 28 published claims 2 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

belief 10evaluation 8uncertainty 4preference 3commitment 2prediction 1

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The useful parts, with receipts.

28 published records

01 / evaluation

Afterwards, when pushes into big reinforcement learning efforts kind of all fizzled out—like post-Dota, as the reinforcement learning wasn't working out for solving those hard problems outside of the simulated game universes—then I started thinking, “Okay, maybe we kinda overshot there…” But then GPT came out of nowhere and basically erased all that.

“Afterwards, when pushes into big reinforcement learning efforts kind of all fizzled out—like post-Dota, as the reinforcement learning wasn't working out for solving those hard problems outside of the simulated game universes—then I started thinking, “Okay, maybe we kinda overshot there…” But then GPT came out of nowhere and basically erased all that.”
Speaker
Gwern
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

02 / prediction

In any kind of niche where it's static, or where intelligence will be super expensive, or where you don't have much time because you're a short-lived organism, it's going to be hard to evolve a general purpose learning mechanism when you could instead evolve one that's tailored to the specific problem that you encounter.

“In any kind of niche where it's static, or where intelligence will be super expensive, or where you don't have much time because you're a short-lived organism, it's going to be hard to evolve a general purpose learning mechanism when you could instead evolve one that's tailored to the specific problem that you encounter.”
Speaker
Gwern
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

17 / uncertainty

Borges has a short poem called "Borges and I" where he talks about how he doesn’t identify with the version of himself that is actually doing the writing and publishing all of this great work. I don’t know if you identify with that at all.

“Borges has a short poem called "Borges and I" where he talks about how he doesn’t identify with the version of himself that is actually doing the writing and publishing all of this great work. I don’t know if you identify with that at all.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

21 / preference

One of my favorite blog posts of yours is “Evolution as Backstop for RL,” where you talk about evolution as basically a mechanism to learn a better learning process.

“One of my favorite blog posts of yours is “Evolution as Backstop for RL,” where you talk about evolution as basically a mechanism to learn a better learning process.”
Speaker
Dwarkesh Patel
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

25 / commitment

I refuse to believe that there are two totally unrelated kinds of intelligence, or paths to intelligence—where humans, monkeys, guppies, dogs are all one thing, and then neural networks and computers are another thing—and they have absolutely nothing to do with each other.

“I refuse to believe that there are two totally unrelated kinds of intelligence, or paths to intelligence—where humans, monkeys, guppies, dogs are all one thing, and then neural networks and computers are another thing—and they have absolutely nothing to do with each other.”
Speaker
Gwern
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

26 / preference

Yes, I like going to the gym—not because I'm any kind of meathead or athlete or even really enjoy weightlifting—but because it's the most diametrically opposite thing I can do to sitting in front of a computer.

“Yes, I like going to the gym—not because I'm any kind of meathead or athlete or even really enjoy weightlifting—but because it's the most diametrically opposite thing I can do to sitting in front of a computer.”
Speaker
Gwern
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

27 / evaluation

I thought it was ludicrous to suggest that simply because there’s some supercomputer out there which matches the human brain, then that would just summon out of nonexistence the correct algorithm.

“I thought it was ludicrous to suggest that simply because there’s some supercomputer out there which matches the human brain, then that would just summon out of nonexistence the correct algorithm.”
Speaker
Gwern
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

28 / evaluation

I had been a little bit interested in Bitcoin, but not too seriously interested in it because it was not obvious to me that it was going to work out, or even was technologically feasible.

“I had been a little bit interested in Bitcoin, but not too seriously interested in it because it was not obvious to me that it was going to work out, or even was technologically feasible.”
Speaker
Gwern
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast
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