Evidence receipt / evaluation
Published · transcript-backedGwern: evaluation
13 Nov 2024 Dwarkesh Podcast Gwern — Anonymous writer who predicted AI trajectory on $12K/year salary
“Other times —when I started watching for this pattern—I would say, "Oh yes, ‘pain’ is a good example of this.”
— Gwern
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Gwern
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- evaluation
- Recorded
- 13 Nov 2024
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…That’s one of the interesting things about your process. There are a couple of writers like Matt Levine or Byrne Hobart who write an article every day. I think of them almost like autoregressive models. For you, on some of the blog posts you can see the start date and end date that you list on your website of when you’ve been working on a piece. Sometimes it’s like 2009 to 2024. I feel like that’s much more like diffusion. You just keep iterating on the same image again and again. One of my favorite blog posts of yours is “Evolution as Backstop for RL,” where you talk about evolution as basically a mechanism to learn a better learning process. And that explains why corporations don’t improve over time but biological organisms do. I’m curious if you can walk me through the years that it took to write that. What was that process like, step by step? So the “Backstop” essay that you're referring to is the synthesis of seeing the same pattern show up again and again: a stupid, inefficient way of learning, which you use to learn something smarter, but where you still can’t get rid of the original one entirely. Sometimes examples would just connect to each other when I was thinking about this. Other times —when I started watching for this pattern—I would say, "Oh yes, ‘pain’ is a good example of this. Maybe this explains why we have pain in the very specific way that we have, when you can logically imagine other kinds of pain, and those other pains would be smarter, but nothing keeps them honest.” So you just chain them one by one, these individual examples of the pattern, and just keep clarifying the central idea as you go. Wittgenstein says that you can look at an idea from many directions and then go in spirals around it. In an essay like “Backstop,” it’s me spiraling around this idea of having many layers of “learning” all the way down. Once you notice one example of this pattern, like this pain example, do you just keep adding examples to that? Walk me through the process over time.…
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