01 / belief
I think the market has a model of what will happen. It’s hard to beat that model.
“I think the market has a model of what will happen. It’s hard to beat that model.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence
Ray Dalio on Investing, Management, and the Changing World Order
Speakers in the public record
Claim mix
belief 5evaluation 4prediction 3recommendation 2commitment 1
Evidence policy
Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.
Claim ledger
The useful parts, with receipts.
15 published records
02 / belief
If we think about macroeconomic cycles, Christina Romer claims a lot of downturns are the result of Fed contractions.
“If we think about macroeconomic cycles, Christina Romer claims a lot of downturns are the result of Fed contractions.”
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
03 / belief
I think we’re referring to different things. You’re referring to what you’re reading in the literature, and I’m referring to my 50 years of experience and what I’m doing, so we have a different perspective about those things.
“I think we’re referring to different things. You’re referring to what you’re reading in the literature, and I’m referring to my 50 years of experience and what I’m doing, so we have a different perspective about those things.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
04 / belief
I think, when we look forward, we can use those as guides to what’s likely to happen in the way of excess return.
“I think, when we look forward, we can use those as guides to what’s likely to happen in the way of excess return.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
05 / belief
By transitory, I think everybody understands that to mean temporary shocks that don’t become chronic, and therefore, we don’t have a chronically higher rate of inflation.
“By transitory, I think everybody understands that to mean temporary shocks that don’t become chronic, and therefore, we don’t have a chronically higher rate of inflation.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
06 / evaluation
They are both a piece of the same, but the ocean is 72 percent of the world’s surface. So that means that the space and what it’s occupying and the lives that live in it and all of that is more than twice as large as all of the continents combined, and it has an enormous impact on our lives.
“They are both a piece of the same, but the ocean is 72 percent of the world’s surface. So that means that the space and what it’s occupying and the lives that live in it and all of that is more than twice as large as all of the continents combined, and it has an enormous impact on our lives.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
07 / evaluation
Some people make a lot of money and others don’t, so naturally it produces a wealth gap. But that wealth gap can be self-reinforcing because the parents who have more money give their kids better advantages, and they have more power than those who are born into families that don’t have much.
“Some people make a lot of money and others don’t, so naturally it produces a wealth gap. But that wealth gap can be self-reinforcing because the parents who have more money give their kids better advantages, and they have more power than those who are born into families that don’t have much.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
08 / prediction
In other words, when you get close to a zero interest rate, and you spend a lot more money than you earn, then the government does that, that means that a lot of money is printed, and it moves its way through the system in a way that is reflected in market prices.
“In other words, when you get close to a zero interest rate, and you spend a lot more money than you earn, then the government does that, that means that a lot of money is printed, and it moves its way through the system in a way that is reflected in market prices.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
09 / recommendation
Let me just reverse it, and I would say, like I would say to anybody if we disagree, do you want me to have a good conversation with you?
“Let me just reverse it, and I would say, like I would say to anybody if we disagree, do you want me to have a good conversation with you?”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
10 / prediction
stop that buying. And the consequences of that would be very bearish for markets, and it would be very bearish for the economy and, I believe, too bearish for the Federal Reserve to want to tolerate.
“stop that buying. And the consequences of that would be very bearish for markets, and it would be very bearish for the economy and, I believe, too bearish for the Federal Reserve to want to tolerate.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
11 / evaluation
By studying that dynamic of the Great Depression, I and we at Bridgewater were able to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis and do very well in it, only because we looked at those things that happened before.
“By studying that dynamic of the Great Depression, I and we at Bridgewater were able to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis and do very well in it, only because we looked at those things that happened before.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
12 / prediction
The answer is both because, for other reasons, the tightening of money and credit reduces demand for things, and as a result of reducing the demand for things, it weakens the economy.
“The answer is both because, for other reasons, the tightening of money and credit reduces demand for things, and as a result of reducing the demand for things, it weakens the economy.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
13 / recommendation
As a result of that, it produces the dealing with things well, and it also produces better relationships. It’s been something that I believe has been key to our success, and it’s also something I recommend very highly.
“As a result of that, it produces the dealing with things well, and it also produces better relationships. It’s been something that I believe has been key to our success, and it’s also something I recommend very highly.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
14 / commitment
My next will be to complete my economic and investment principles because I do think differently about economics and investments than some people, which I believe is what has given me the edge, so I want to pass that along.
“My next will be to complete my economic and investment principles because I do think differently about economics and investments than some people, which I believe is what has given me the edge, so I want to pass that along.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
15 / evaluation
for example, while I believe that climate change and moving to cleaner energy and other such moves is very good for our ecosystem in the long run, it’s also very expensive, and it makes less efficiency.
“for example, while I believe that climate change and moving to cleaner energy and other such moves is very good for our ecosystem in the long run, it’s also very expensive, and it makes less efficiency.”
- Speaker
- Ray Dalio
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler