Tyler Cowen: belief

Transcript context

…It’s not random at all. In other words, do you think where interest rates are is random? Do you think it’s random? Do you think that if these things change . . . let’s take that example. Do you think that it would be random that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy? Do you think it’s random that we’re having inflation pressures? Do you think it’s random? Do you think those things are random? I think the market has a model of what will happen. It’s hard to beat that model. But look at it this way: the factors you’re citing to me — they’re publicly available information. We’re talking about them on a podcast. Why shouldn’t they already be in market prices? The market is like a poker game. I’ve played the poker game for over 50 years. I’m saying it’s a zero-sum game relative to what’s priced in, and the smart people take money away from those who are less smart. That’s the way it works. I wouldn’t be in the business — I wouldn’t be on your podcast, I presume — unless that was true.…

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