app / likes
ChatGPT app
“This is why I like the ChatGPT app, because it gives the AI a home in your computer where you can focus on it, rather than just being another tab in my mess of internet options.”
Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Books, apps, and tools
app / likes
“This is why I like the ChatGPT app, because it gives the AI a home in your computer where you can focus on it, rather than just being another tab in my mess of internet options.”
app / likes
“This is why I like the ChatGPT app, because it gives the AI a home in your computer where you can focus on it, rather than just being another tab in my mess of internet options.”
book / recommends
“It’s a great book, Season of the Witch; I recommend it. A bunch of my SF friends who do get out recommended it to me.”
Claim ledger
12 transcript-backed records
01 / uncertainty
“I guess I don’t know— how bad production codebases are, but I think that within… on the order of a few years, a lot of people are going to be pushed to be more like a designer and product manager, where you have multiple of these agents that can try things for you, and they might take one to two days to implement a feature or attempt to fix a bug.”
02 / uncertainty
“A lot of it is financial services, so I don’t know what this is. It’s just hard for me to think about the GDP bump, but I would say that software development becomes valuable in a different way when you no longer have to look at the code anymore.”
03 / uncertainty
“Unless they were great, but the first ads won’t be great because it’s a hard problem that we don’t know how to solve.”
04 / uncertainty
“Is running in parallel actually search? Because I don’t know if we have the full information on how o1-pro works.”
05 / uncertainty
“The thing that amplifies the relevance of culture with language models is that we are used to this mode of interacting with people in back and forth conversation. And we now have very powerful computer system that slots into a social context that we’re used to, which makes people very… We don’t know the extent that which people can be impacted by that.”
06 / uncertainty
“Many companies have done seven nanometer chips. And the question is we don’t know how much Huawei was subsidizing production of that chip.”
07 / uncertainty
“” The actual thing that happened is much more complex where there’s social factors, where there’s the rising in the app store, the social contagion that is happening. And then I think some of it is just like, I don’t trade, I don’t know anything about financial markets, but it builds up over the weekend, the social pressure, where it’s like if it was during the week and there was multiple days of trading when this was really becoming, but it comes on the weekend and then everybody wants to sell, and then that is a social contagion.”
08 / uncertainty
“I would say the simplest one is that our language models to date have been designed to give the right answer the highest percentage of the time in one response. And we are now opening the door to different ways of running inference on our models in which we need to reevaluate many parts of the training process, which normally opens the door to more progress, but we don’t know if OpenAI changed a lot or if just sampling more and multiple choice is what they’re doing or if it’s something more complex, but they changed the training and they know that the inference mode is going to be different.”
09 / uncertainty
“I think for reasoning with this RL and verifiable domains, we’re early, but we don’t know where the point is where you just start training on enough domains and poof, more domains just start working.”
10 / uncertainty
“I try to do it every six or 12 months is my estimated cadence, just to refine the ways that I say things. And people will see that we don't know that much more, but we have a bit of better way of saying what we don't know.”
11 / uncertainty
“People release checkpoints, but that's how we should be thinking about it because the optimizer is so strong and it's like we don't know what's happening in this kind of intermediate land.”
12 / uncertainty
“Near, especially after three organizational restructures of researchers hopping, playing hopscotch from one org to another, and being in between, in between jobs. I don't know.”