Evidence receipt / uncertainty
Published · transcript-backedNathan Lambert: uncertainty
1 Feb 2026 Lex Fridman Podcast #490 – State of AI in 2026: LLMs, Coding, Scaling Laws, China, Agents, GPUs, AGI
“Unless they were great, but the first ads won’t be great because it’s a hard problem that we don’t know how to solve.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Nathan Lambert
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- uncertainty
- Recorded
- 1 Feb 2026
- Publisher
- Lex Fridman Podcast
Transcript context
…I do think what holds companies back right now is really just that the competition is not doing it. It’s more like a reputation thing. I think people are just afraid right now of ruining their reputation or losing users- …because it would make headlines if someone launched these ads. But- Unless they were great, but the first ads won’t be great because it’s a hard problem that we don’t know how to solve. Yeah, I think also the first version of that will likely be something like on X, like the timeline where you have a promoted post sometimes in between. It’ll be something like that where it will say “promoted” or something small, and then there will be an image or something. I think right now the problem is who makes the first move.…
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