Public evidence record
Co-founder · SSI
Claim ledger
14 transcript-backed records
01 / prediction
“Now, from 2020 to 2025, it was the age of scaling—maybe plus or minus, let’s add error bars to those years—because people say, “This is amazing.”
02 / prediction
“I think there’ll definitely be diminishing returns because you want people who think differently rather than the same.”
03 / prediction
“I think when that happens, we will see a big change in the way all AI companies approach safety.”
04 / prediction
“Because what will happen as a result is that now the AI understands something, and we understand it too, because now the understanding is transmitted wholesale.”
05 / prediction
“If it somehow ends up being the case that you really want them to be reliable and they ended up not being reliable, or if reliability turned out to be harder than we expect.”
06 / prediction
“I expect there's going to be a convergence-divergence-convergence behavior, where there is a lot of convergence on the near term work, there's going to be some divergence on the longer term work.”
07 / prediction
“There is obviously less publishing now so it will take longer before this promising direction gets rediscovered.”
08 / prediction
“Today when you use Copilot, how do you divide it up? So I expect at some point you ask your descendant of ChatGPT, you say — Hey, I'm thinking about this and this.”
09 / prediction
“The GPUs were improving concurrently because you have smaller and smaller transistors and you're looking for things to do with them.”
10 / prediction
“I think large-scale tracking is possible, yes. It requires special operations but it's possible.”
11 / prediction
“One thing I imagine is that we will be able to become more enlightened because we interact with an AGI which will help us see the world more correctly, and become better on the inside as a result of interacting.”
12 / prediction
“We’ve made some progress but much more progress is possible. And so I would expect that ultimately, the thing that will really succeed is when we will have a small neural net that is well understood that’s been given the task to study the behavior of a large neural net that is not understood, to verify.”
13 / prediction
“For example, I believe that Intel has fabs just like a few generations ago. So that means that if Intel wanted to they could produce something GPU-like from four years ago.”
14 / prediction
“Rather than achieving one mathematical definition, I think we will achieve multiple definitions that look at alignment from different aspects.”