Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedIlya Sutskever: prediction
27 Mar 2023 Dwarkesh Podcast Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligence
“For example, I believe that Intel has fabs just like a few generations ago. So that means that if Intel wanted to they could produce something GPU-like from four years ago.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Ilya Sutskever
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 27 Mar 2023
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…How vulnerable is the whole AI ecosystem to something that might happen in Taiwan? So let's say there's a tsunami in Taiwan or something, what happens to AI in general? It's definitely going to be a significant setback. No one will be able to get more compute for a few years. But I expect compute will spring up. For example, I believe that Intel has fabs just like a few generations ago. So that means that if Intel wanted to they could produce something GPU-like from four years ago. But yeah, it's not the best, I'm actually not sure if my statement about Intel is correct, but I do know that there are fabs outside of Taiwan, they're just not as good. But you can still use them and still go very far with them. It's just cost, it’s just a setback. Would inference get cost prohibitive as these models get bigger and bigger?…
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