Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedIlya Sutskever: prediction
27 Mar 2023 Dwarkesh Podcast Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligence
“I expect there's going to be a convergence-divergence-convergence behavior, where there is a lot of convergence on the near term work, there's going to be some divergence on the longer term work.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Ilya Sutskever
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 27 Mar 2023
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…Over time do the research directions of these different companies converge or diverge? Are they doing similar and similar things over time? Or are they branching off into different areas? I’d say in the near term, it looks like there is convergence. I expect there's going to be a convergence-divergence-convergence behavior, where there is a lot of convergence on the near term work, there's going to be some divergence on the longer term work. But then once the longer term work starts to fruit, there will be convergence again, Got it. When one of them finds the most promising area, everybody just……
Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.