Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
23 transcript-backed records
01 / belief
“Oh, so we’re all talking about these hypothetical other people I think would make the wrong choice.”
02 / belief
“I think that if you actually go start trying to run a project of selectively encouraging some marriages between particular people and encouraging them to have children, you will rapidly find, as one does in any such process that when you select on the stuff you want, it turns out there’s a bunch of stuff correlated with it and that you’re not changing just one thing.”
03 / belief
“I think that over the last 22 years or so, we’ve seen a great lack of galaxy brained ideas playing out successfully.”
04 / belief
“I think I did a fairly good job of shaping my ignorance to lead me to not be too stupid despite my ignorance over time as it played out.”
05 / belief
“I think I’d have to explain that poll pretty carefully because they haven’t got the intelligence headbands yet.”
06 / belief
“Some of my intuition here is like I know how I would do this with dogs and I think you could ask OpenAI to describe their theory of how to do it with dogs.”
07 / belief
“I agree it’s possible to imagine things being even worse. Not quite sure what the other point of the question is.”
08 / belief
“” The lectures aren’t really the parts I’m proud about. It’s like where you have the life or death, deathnote style battle of wits that is centering around a series of Bayesian updates and making that actually work because it’s where I’m like — “Yeah, I think I actually pulled that off.”
09 / belief
“At the core I think what you’re describing there is a sufficiently functional society and civilization that could understand that — if they did thing X, it would lead to very bad thing Y, and so they didn’t do thing X.”
10 / belief
“I agree that possibly at this point some of them are mad at me, but I have yet to turn down the leader of any major AI lab who has come to me asking for advice.”
11 / belief
“I think that you can plausibly have a series of intelligence enhancing drugs and other external interventions that you perform on a human brain and make people smarter.”
12 / belief
“Yeah, because it would sound weird. But I think the smarter they are, the more likely they are to go for it if it’s credible.”
13 / belief
“I think you are trying to read something into this that is not meant to be there.”
14 / belief
“What I’m saying is you’re like — “Oh, prediction. Oh, no, I don’t like my prediction.”
15 / belief
“I think you’re just wrong. I think the theory of intelligence is just flatly not that complicated.”
16 / belief
“I think that that’s substantially harder than being like — “Oh, well, I can just look at the code of the operating system and see if it has any security flaws.”
17 / belief
“I think that the Hanson-Yudkowsky foom debate was won by Gwern Branwen, but I do think that Gwern Branwen is well to the Yudkowsky side of Yudkowsky in the original foom debate.”
18 / belief
“If you keep on optimizing the dogs, which is not the correct course of action, I think I mostly expect this to eventually blow up on you.”
19 / belief
“I don’t think we’re going to live in that sane world. I think we are all going to die.”
20 / belief
“I think we’re just mainly in the territory of Hail Mary passes at this point, and human intelligence enhancement is one Hail Mary pass.”
21 / belief
“Paul Christiano and I cooperatively fought it out really hard at trying to find a place where we both had predictions about the same thing that concretely differed and what we ended up with was Paul’s 8% versus my 16% for an AI getting gold on International Mathematics Olympics problem set by, I believe, 2025.”
22 / belief
“I don’t think you can even upvote downvote very well on that sort of thing. I think if you upvote-downvote, it learns to exploit the human readers.”
23 / belief
“Show me the happy world where we can build something smarter than us and not and not just immediately die. I think we got plenty of stuff to figure out in GPT-4.”