Eliezer Yudkowsky: belief

Transcript context

…GPT-4 people are already freaked out. When GPT-5 comes about, it’s going to be 100x what Sydney Bing was. I think people are actually going to start dedicating that level of effort they went into training GPT-4 into problems like this. Well, cool. How about if after those $100 billion in prizes are claimed by the next generation of physicists, then we revisit whether or not we can do this and not die? Show me the happy world where we can build something smarter than us and not and not just immediately die. I think we got plenty of stuff to figure out in GPT-4. We are so far behind right now. The interpretability people are working on stuff smaller than GPT-2. They are pushing the frontiers and stuff on smaller than GPT-2. We’ve got GPT-4 now. Let the $100 billion in prizes be claimed for understanding GPT-4. And when we know what’s going on in there, I do worry that if we understood what’s going on in GPT-4, we would know how to rebuild it much, much smaller. So there’s actually a bit of danger down that path too. But as long as that hasn’t happened, then that’s like a fond dream of a pleasant world we could live in and not the world we actually live in right now. How concretely would a system like GPT-5 or GPT-6 be able to recursively self improve?…

Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.