Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedEliezer Yudkowsky: belief
6 Apr 2023 Dwarkesh Podcast Eliezer Yudkowsky — Why AI will kill us, aligning LLMs, nature of intelligence, SciFi, & rationality
“Paul Christiano and I cooperatively fought it out really hard at trying to find a place where we both had predictions about the same thing that concretely differed and what we ended up with was Paul’s 8% versus my 16% for an AI getting gold on International Mathematics Olympics problem set by, I believe, 2025.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Eliezer Yudkowsky
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 6 Apr 2023
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…Presumably you would have different predictions before the world ends. It would be weird if the model that this world ends and the model that says the world doesn’t end have the same predictions up until the world ends. Yeah. Paul Christiano and I cooperatively fought it out really hard at trying to find a place where we both had predictions about the same thing that concretely differed and what we ended up with was Paul’s 8% versus my 16% for an AI getting gold on International Mathematics Olympics problem set by, I believe, 2025. And prediction markets odds on that are currently running around 30%. So probably Paul’s going to win, but slight moral victory. I guess people like Paul have had the perspective that you’re going to see these sorts of gradual improvements in the capabilities of these models from like GPT-2 to GPT-3.…
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