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Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence

Noel Johnson and Mark Koyama on *Persecution and Toleration*

30 Jan 2019 24 published claims 3 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

belief 13evaluation 7prediction 2uncertainty 1observation 1

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Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

24 published records

04 / belief

I know Albania was part of the Ottoman Empire at one point, and some of these regions. This isn’t closer to the Ottoman Empire in my mind, but Poland has a much different equilibrium with Jews that emerges, and I have a story for that.

“I know Albania was part of the Ottoman Empire at one point, and some of these regions. This isn’t closer to the Ottoman Empire in my mind, but Poland has a much different equilibrium with Jews that emerges, and I have a story for that.”
Speaker
Noel Johnson
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

08 / belief

I think what’s very interesting about the volcanic eruptions is that we are discovering more and more that they may have played a large role in political change that occurred.

“I think what’s very interesting about the volcanic eruptions is that we are discovering more and more that they may have played a large role in political change that occurred.”
Speaker
Noel Johnson
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

11 / belief

For example, there are many EU nationals currently residing in Britain, and I think Theresa May was pretty bad in not immediately granting them, basically, permanent leave to stay.

“For example, there are many EU nationals currently residing in Britain, and I think Theresa May was pretty bad in not immediately granting them, basically, permanent leave to stay.”
Speaker
Mark Koyama
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

13 / uncertainty

If we look at economic miracles or effervescences, I don’t know how many of them arise in the capital region, in the political center, and how many arise in peripheral regions.

“If we look at economic miracles or effervescences, I don’t know how many of them arise in the capital region, in the political center, and how many arise in peripheral regions.”
Speaker
Mark Koyama
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

15 / evaluation

While people have been looking at it, you see that the timing’s not perfect, but it did pile on additional agricultural pressure on these nobles at a time when they were all discontented with the king’s power. They might have been individually upset before, but now they’re all becoming upset at the same time because you have crops failing, the king is still asking for revenues, and they all are feeling the pressure at the same time.

“While people have been looking at it, you see that the timing’s not perfect, but it did pile on additional agricultural pressure on these nobles at a time when they were all discontented with the king’s power. They might have been individually upset before, but now they’re all becoming upset at the same time because you have crops failing, the king is still asking for revenues, and they all are feeling the pressure at the same time.”
Speaker
Noel Johnson
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

16 / evaluation

Politically, though, I think there’s still a great value to having an organization in Europe which is formally meeting [laughs] from time to time and discussing these sorts of issues.

“Politically, though, I think there’s still a great value to having an organization in Europe which is formally meeting [laughs] from time to time and discussing these sorts of issues.”
Speaker
Noel Johnson
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

17 / prediction

English ambassadors are being killed. But once they overthrow the shogunate and restore the emperor, they’re able — partly I think because it’s a cohesive territory — to develop this modern state which can respond to the West.

“English ambassadors are being killed. But once they overthrow the shogunate and restore the emperor, they’re able — partly I think because it’s a cohesive territory — to develop this modern state which can respond to the West.”
Speaker
Mark Koyama
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

18 / prediction

Because I think eventually, the 13th century, the Commercial Revolution in the 12th century, is a high point of expansion, of new cities being founded in northern Europe, of Italian merchants going to the Middle East.

“Because I think eventually, the 13th century, the Commercial Revolution in the 12th century, is a high point of expansion, of new cities being founded in northern Europe, of Italian merchants going to the Middle East.”
Speaker
Mark Koyama
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

20 / evaluation

The way that my coauthors on this paper, who are Theresa Finley and Raphael Franck — the way we think about this process is that you have a set of feudal institutions and property that exists up to about 1790 or something like this — the French Revolution, early phases.

“The way that my coauthors on this paper, who are Theresa Finley and Raphael Franck — the way we think about this process is that you have a set of feudal institutions and property that exists up to about 1790 or something like this — the French Revolution, early phases.”
Speaker
Noel Johnson
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

21 / observation

We know — because of what we’ve been looking at — that the Hanseatic cities, which are the trading network that exists on the Baltic in the north of Europe — those cities recovered much more quickly than cities in the south, cities tied to the old Roman road network that centered on the Mediterranean, for example.

“We know — because of what we’ve been looking at — that the Hanseatic cities, which are the trading network that exists on the Baltic in the north of Europe — those cities recovered much more quickly than cities in the south, cities tied to the old Roman road network that centered on the Mediterranean, for example.”
Speaker
Noel Johnson
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

24 / evaluation

I had a theory about this once, and I didn’t pursue it. But my theory — when I was in graduate school — was that they were getting a large amount of specie flow because they had mercenaries out there, and they were being paid in gold.

“I had a theory about this once, and I didn’t pursue it. But my theory — when I was in graduate school — was that they were getting a large amount of specie flow because they had mercenaries out there, and they were being paid in gold.”
Speaker
Noel Johnson
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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