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Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence

Shruti Rajagopalan talks to Daniel Gross and Tyler about Identifying and Predicting Talent

1 Sept 2022 39 published claims 3 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

belief 24evaluation 6preference 3uncertainty 3commitment 1recommendation 1prediction 1

Evidence policy

Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.

Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

39 published records

01 / preference

I like to look for people who believe something very strongly. That can’t be the only qualification, but other economics departments tend not to do that.

“I like to look for people who believe something very strongly. That can’t be the only qualification, but other economics departments tend not to do that.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

03 / belief

You need to have eight or nine very definite things go to an A or A+ level for you, and it might happen for you and not for your identical twin. So, I think, at the highest levels of achievement, identical twins do not contain a lot of information, and they would not be that useful in talent search.

“You need to have eight or nine very definite things go to an A or A+ level for you, and it might happen for you and not for your identical twin. So, I think, at the highest levels of achievement, identical twins do not contain a lot of information, and they would not be that useful in talent search.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

04 / belief

The company thing cannot fail.” I think that type of perseverance . . . Look, every single great start-up has had these dark moments of death or near death.

“The company thing cannot fail.” I think that type of perseverance . . . Look, every single great start-up has had these dark moments of death or near death.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

09 / belief

I think we are declining in energy as a country. Putting immigrants aside, which is going to be a complex story of its own and may not be the same from all other places, but the country, to me, seems to have much less energy than it did even earlier in my lifetime, just anecdotally, so I worry about that.

“I think we are declining in energy as a country. Putting immigrants aside, which is going to be a complex story of its own and may not be the same from all other places, but the country, to me, seems to have much less energy than it did even earlier in my lifetime, just anecdotally, so I worry about that.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

10 / belief

I think a lot of that comes out of just a general sense of vigorousness and vitality that I think is somewhat correlated with this sense of ambition, too.

“I think a lot of that comes out of just a general sense of vigorousness and vitality that I think is somewhat correlated with this sense of ambition, too.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

11 / belief

For example, I think very good investors are the right degree of optimistic but also realistic, whereas founders are too optimistic, which they should be.

“For example, I think very good investors are the right degree of optimistic but also realistic, whereas founders are too optimistic, which they should be.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

12 / uncertainty

Oddly, I think the simplest thing — I don’t know about EV — but certainly, I find what I’ve done over the course of my career that people seem to say has been useful for them is either just funding, or at least encouraging people to move — to Silicon Valley, ideally, if they’re in tech, but even just to a new city.

“Oddly, I think the simplest thing — I don’t know about EV — but certainly, I find what I’ve done over the course of my career that people seem to say has been useful for them is either just funding, or at least encouraging people to move — to Silicon Valley, ideally, if they’re in tech, but even just to a new city.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

14 / belief

The person who’s hyper conscientious, who really dots every i and crosses every t — it’s exceedingly rare, I think, to find someone that is really, really conscientious and also really open.

“The person who’s hyper conscientious, who really dots every i and crosses every t — it’s exceedingly rare, I think, to find someone that is really, really conscientious and also really open.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

17 / belief

In a city like San Francisco, where it’s hard to go out and not see someone running, I don’t think it’s particularly remarkable to be a runner. But yes, I think we have very different philosophies when it comes to exercise.

“In a city like San Francisco, where it’s hard to go out and not see someone running, I don’t think it’s particularly remarkable to be a runner. But yes, I think we have very different philosophies when it comes to exercise.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

19 / belief

Combination of level of aspiration, internet is good enough, enough people with enough English fluency, some underlying flexibility of worldview that I think has made Indians relatively well suited, say, to be CEOs in American companies in a way we might not have expected, say, 30 years ago.

“Combination of level of aspiration, internet is good enough, enough people with enough English fluency, some underlying flexibility of worldview that I think has made Indians relatively well suited, say, to be CEOs in American companies in a way we might not have expected, say, 30 years ago.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

20 / belief

I appreciate the questions are very colorful, better than some of the questions we’ve gotten. I think no one has, to date, asked us how to screen for human Martian settlers.

“I appreciate the questions are very colorful, better than some of the questions we’ve gotten. I think no one has, to date, asked us how to screen for human Martian settlers.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

21 / belief

I think the bigger and more globalized network the world gets, the higher the returns to the Bat-Signal, and Bat-Signals are still one of the most underrated ways to be effective.

“I think the bigger and more globalized network the world gets, the higher the returns to the Bat-Signal, and Bat-Signals are still one of the most underrated ways to be effective.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

22 / belief

I think there are psychometric personalities — I imagine mine — that are relentlessly interested in improving, and for that, getting a tight feedback loop with any type of numerical score is very good and very simple.

“I think there are psychometric personalities — I imagine mine — that are relentlessly interested in improving, and for that, getting a tight feedback loop with any type of numerical score is very good and very simple.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

23 / belief

I think that the amazing thing about the reality we live in today is yes, you can interview literally millions of mentors on YouTube for free, basically anywhere in the world.

“I think that the amazing thing about the reality we live in today is yes, you can interview literally millions of mentors on YouTube for free, basically anywhere in the world.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

24 / commitment

” Not believe in me, but they can’t even believe that someone actually trusts them with the money and really trusts the story that they’re selling to me, and so on. The first thing they say is, “I won’t let you down.

“” Not believe in me, but they can’t even believe that someone actually trusts them with the money and really trusts the story that they’re selling to me, and so on. The first thing they say is, “I won’t let you down.”
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

26 / evaluation

In fact, the way we’re supposed to interview now — not just supposed to, but do — is we’re to ask everyone the same questions, and we do. But that doesn’t matter.

“In fact, the way we’re supposed to interview now — not just supposed to, but do — is we’re to ask everyone the same questions, and we do. But that doesn’t matter.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

29 / belief

I’d be looking and asking for groups of people — I would make no case on what form of religion is the best — but groups of people that are very connected on some very deep level because otherwise, I think you can end up with something that blows up.

“I’d be looking and asking for groups of people — I would make no case on what form of religion is the best — but groups of people that are very connected on some very deep level because otherwise, I think you can end up with something that blows up.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

30 / recommendation

There’s something that’s been helpful for me that I’ve realized I have, that I think many people have — I don’t know if it’s totally ubiquitous — is, in the process of an interview — which you do in venture a lot, hundreds and thousands of times a year — being able to build a grid of the person that’s talking to you, who they most remind you of and the outcomes that those people have had, is I think a pretty important skill.

“There’s something that’s been helpful for me that I’ve realized I have, that I think many people have — I don’t know if it’s totally ubiquitous — is, in the process of an interview — which you do in venture a lot, hundreds and thousands of times a year — being able to build a grid of the person that’s talking to you, who they most remind you of and the outcomes that those people have had, is I think a pretty important skill.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

31 / evaluation

Many of those fail, but occasionally, those work, and it creates the microphones that we’re using, the building that we’re in, and the city and world that we live in.

“Many of those fail, but occasionally, those work, and it creates the microphones that we’re using, the building that we’re in, and the city and world that we live in.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

32 / evaluation

I think that affords us all modalities because I really think there are very few people that don’t want to improve at least themselves, if not want to compete against others.

“I think that affords us all modalities because I really think there are very few people that don’t want to improve at least themselves, if not want to compete against others.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

34 / evaluation

I can name plenty of individual politicians who I think are just absolute train wrecks, but again, I would think in terms of the main problem being the voter.

“I can name plenty of individual politicians who I think are just absolute train wrecks, but again, I would think in terms of the main problem being the voter.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

35 / evaluation

The guarantee Pioneer gives you is that if you’re in the top decile, we will review your application, but you could be 25th or 32nd — it doesn’t matter, we still review your application.

“The guarantee Pioneer gives you is that if you’re in the top decile, we will review your application, but you could be 25th or 32nd — it doesn’t matter, we still review your application.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

36 / evaluation

There are some people who really are thirsty to do things and run things and create and make a difference, and those people are trapped in academia because a lot of them can’t see a way of supporting themselves doing a different thing.

“There are some people who really are thirsty to do things and run things and create and make a difference, and those people are trapped in academia because a lot of them can’t see a way of supporting themselves doing a different thing.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

37 / prediction

The really tricky thing — in venture, in particular — is regressing on success is pretty hard, not just because the data points are pretty sparse, like, what great founders look like — maybe you have 10,000, which is not that helpful.

“The really tricky thing — in venture, in particular — is regressing on success is pretty hard, not just because the data points are pretty sparse, like, what great founders look like — maybe you have 10,000, which is not that helpful.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

38 / preference

I think that might be because — I’d be curious if you’d agree that it’s because, for most tasks, doing gleans far more information than thinking.

“I think that might be because — I’d be curious if you’d agree that it’s because, for most tasks, doing gleans far more information than thinking.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

39 / uncertainty

Certainly, with start-up founders, which is maybe the area I most studied in, you tend to see first-generation immigrants. But these are people that come to the United States usually not out of sheer desperation to have some basic form of economic success, because they were somewhat suppressed in their origin country, but more people in search of some spiritual belonging that they believe they found in whatever technology they’re working on.

“Certainly, with start-up founders, which is maybe the area I most studied in, you tend to see first-generation immigrants. But these are people that come to the United States usually not out of sheer desperation to have some basic form of economic success, because they were somewhat suppressed in their origin country, but more people in search of some spiritual belonging that they believe they found in whatever technology they’re working on.”
Speaker
Daniel Gross
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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