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Machine Learning Street Talk / episode intelligence

The 3 Laws of Knowledge [César Hidalgo]

27 Dec 2025 18 published claims 2 attributable people

Speakers in the public record

Claim mix

evaluation 5belief 5prediction 3observation 2preference 2disagreement 1

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The useful parts, with receipts.

18 published records

01 / evaluation

And the idea of shipping the book directly to a consumer might look like a small incremental innovation. But in reality it was an architectural innovation, and when I do talks and I present this with slides, what I do is I show the picture of a Barnes and Noble, and then next to that I show a picture of an Amazon fulfillment center, which looks like kind of like this part of the airport that is you know sorting all of the different luggage, and that shows that no, that little idea of just shipping directly to consumer require a completely different organizational design, and the distance between the Barnes and Noble organization in this network that we were describing before in that model with the to the Amazon model was enormous in reality just because of that change.

“And the idea of shipping the book directly to a consumer might look like a small incremental innovation. But in reality it was an architectural innovation, and when I do talks and I present this with slides, what I do is I show the picture of a Barnes and Noble, and then next to that I show a picture of an Amazon fulfillment center, which looks like kind of like this part of the airport that is you know sorting all of the different luggage, and that shows that no, that little idea of just shipping directly to consumer require a completely different organizational design, and the distance between the Barnes and Noble organization in this network that we were describing before in that model with the to the Amazon model was enormous in reality just because of that change.”
Speaker
César Hidalgo
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

04 / belief

Like there there is this statistic I think in The United States, if you count Nobel Prize winners after the year 19 seventies, 70% of them, you know, were born outside of the country or or or they migrated at some point in their lives.

“Like there there is this statistic I think in The United States, if you count Nobel Prize winners after the year 19 seventies, 70% of them, you know, were born outside of the country or or or they migrated at some point in their lives.”
Speaker
César Hidalgo
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

05 / belief

You know, so what I do in in that chapter is is built a little bit of a parallel because when it comes to economic development, I think the 2 dominant ideas are that it's about knowledge or it's about institutions.

“You know, so what I do in in that chapter is is built a little bit of a parallel because when it comes to economic development, I think the 2 dominant ideas are that it's about knowledge or it's about institutions.”
Speaker
César Hidalgo
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

07 / belief

You had you're talking about Barnes and Noble over there in Seattle, and they they they went up against Jeff Bezos and they said, well, you know, Jeff, we've launched a website and and we think we can do what you do better than they do.

“You had you're talking about Barnes and Noble over there in Seattle, and they they they went up against Jeff Bezos and they said, well, you know, Jeff, we've launched a website and and we think we can do what you do better than they do.”
Speaker
Tim Scarfe
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

08 / observation

You had to have someone that had that experiential knowledge, you know, that had worked with the best, with Arkwright and Stratt, to come all the way to The US in an act of treason because it was a punishable act of treason to bring that technology to America to eventually be able to build that capability.

“You had to have someone that had that experiential knowledge, you know, that had worked with the best, with Arkwright and Stratt, to come all the way to The US in an act of treason because it was a punishable act of treason to bring that technology to America to eventually be able to build that capability.”
Speaker
César Hidalgo
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

09 / prediction

Instant photography was also laughed at at some point because it was worse, but then eventually that curve keeps on growing and it gets to like a plateau that goes even higher, and then a new technology comes along and moves into a plateau that is higher.

“Instant photography was also laughed at at some point because it was worse, but then eventually that curve keeps on growing and it gets to like a plateau that goes even higher, and then a new technology comes along and moves into a plateau that is higher.”
Speaker
César Hidalgo
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

10 / prediction

They're getting, know, the 10 times bigger every few years and the the bullish people say, oh, we're on an exponential curve and it's just gonna keep going up. But I think that because there is so much groupthink and it's fundamentally the same technology and the same people and there's no fresh new ideas that in a sense it's converged and it's not disruptive anymore.

“They're getting, know, the 10 times bigger every few years and the the bullish people say, oh, we're on an exponential curve and it's just gonna keep going up. But I think that because there is so much groupthink and it's fundamentally the same technology and the same people and there's no fresh new ideas that in a sense it's converged and it's not disruptive anymore.”
Speaker
Tim Scarfe
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

11 / evaluation

Now there is another distinction that is extremely important and that I used a story at the beginning of the book to illustrate, is that also especially among academics or people that are highly educated, we talk about knowledge as this sort of truths that have been validated by the scientific method and so forth.

“Now there is another distinction that is extremely important and that I used a story at the beginning of the book to illustrate, is that also especially among academics or people that are highly educated, we talk about knowledge as this sort of truths that have been validated by the scientific method and so forth.”
Speaker
César Hidalgo
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

13 / observation

He's very smart, he looks at the cost of the last aircraft produced in a batch because aircrafts are producing batches, and he finds also that the number of man hours as a function of the number of aircrafts in the batch decreases as a power law.

“He's very smart, he looks at the cost of the last aircraft produced in a batch because aircrafts are producing batches, and he finds also that the number of man hours as a function of the number of aircrafts in the batch decreases as a power law.”
Speaker
César Hidalgo
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

15 / evaluation

We we know from experience, right, that when we have experience, we get better at things. And we have this this weird, I don't know whether it's an illusion that all we need to do is just write down our understanding into into a wiki document.

“We we know from experience, right, that when we have experience, we get better at things. And we have this this weird, I don't know whether it's an illusion that all we need to do is just write down our understanding into into a wiki document.”
Speaker
Tim Scarfe
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

16 / preference

Well, I I explain my situation, I get those answers, and then I have an accountant and when I meet with my accountant to discuss that, I'm much better informed and I can make better questions. So I think I'm becoming smarter through those conversations because I'm learning faster thanks to those interactions.

“Well, I I explain my situation, I get those answers, and then I have an accountant and when I meet with my accountant to discuss that, I'm much better informed and I can make better questions. So I think I'm becoming smarter through those conversations because I'm learning faster thanks to those interactions.”
Speaker
César Hidalgo
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

17 / preference

No, I think experiential learning is important to transmit that tacit knowledge. And I think you have stories of people that have that intuition and that have been successful because they have developed careers following that intuition.

“No, I think experiential learning is important to transmit that tacit knowledge. And I think you have stories of people that have that intuition and that have been successful because they have developed careers following that intuition.”
Speaker
César Hidalgo
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk

18 / evaluation

You cannot throw like you know a bunch of engineering manuals and cement into a gorge and expect to get a bridge because the books don't have knowledge, teams have knowledge, organizations have knowledge and all of that.

“You cannot throw like you know a bunch of engineering manuals and cement into a gorge and expect to get a bridge because the books don't have knowledge, teams have knowledge, organizations have knowledge and all of that.”
Speaker
César Hidalgo
Publisher
Machine Learning Street Talk
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