Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence
Speakers in the public record
Claim mix
Evidence policy
Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.
Claim ledger
16 published records
01 / belief
“The strengthening of the army, the alliance between dictatorial power of army generals and politicians, together with the feudal landowners, I think, was not something that was invented out of raw cloth.”
02 / evaluation
“There’s another paper I’m sure you know, by Casey Mulligan and coauthors, and he even argues maybe having democracy doesn’t matter that much.”
03 / belief
“I think he is just right. He’s an amazing writer and a brilliant voice for Turkey.”
04 / belief
“I think the biggest threats that we are facing right now are Islamic State terrorists getting free or getting a toehold in that area, or the Syrian and the Russian army now completely controlling that strip, or at least much of that strip.”
05 / observation
“Some politicians who understood that the only way out of the morass was, you’re going to promise to offer better state services, better tax collection, better refuse collection, better schooling, while at the same time encourage society to monitor them better.”
06 / belief
“Since at the moment, all of the incentives in academia and economics depend on publishing in the top five journals, I would say somewhat overrated because we should also value people who are able to reach a broader audience, think outside the box.”
07 / evaluation
“I don’t think I would be that good at it because I think one of the things that you see when you start thinking about the complex of institutions and norms — details matter, leadership matters, collapses matter.”
08 / prediction
“You also want to be careful because it turns out that there’s one surefire predictor of when a country democratizes — it’s economic crisis.”
09 / evaluation
“Their bureaucratic traditions persisted, but no liberty emerged in the Byzantium Empire because you had the one blade, which was the state institutions, but the other blade, the bottom-up politics, was completely missing.”
10 / evaluation
“Perhaps Europeans brought their culture into some places or messed up the culture in some other places. And the human capital is somewhere in between because human capital is an institutional feature, meaning that it really depends on the educational investments, but it also, of course, has a cultural element.”
11 / evaluation
“If we think about the USSR, which has terrible institutions for more than 70 years, an awful form of communism — it falls; there’s a bit of a collapse.”
12 / evaluation
“I think the Russian story is complicated, and I think part of Russian income per capita today is because of natural resources.”
13 / evaluation
“It is also about norms and cultures because you really need to write norms and cultures for society to participate in politics, and the right sort of understanding of what that participation is about. But at some level, I also don’t see it that easily being reduced to other stories because it is exactly about this cooperation-and-competition dimension of state and society empowering both, which, at least to our understanding, was not an idea that has received much attention, but when you start thinking about it, it really opens up new horizons about your interpretation of the world.”
14 / prediction
“Let’s be generous. That means that if you are going to increase your rate of schooling by 3 or 4 percent, and if there are no major human capital externalities — and we can come back to that — then that’s going to increase your GDP per capita by 25, 30 percent.”
15 / evaluation
“I think the Nordhaus numbers are probably extreme because there’s also a lot of business stealing that’s going on at the top, meaning that when people innovate, they actually take other people’s markets.”
16 / prediction
“For example, in the case of after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian mathematicians came here, and they took jobs from American mathematicians because they were actually better.”