Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence
Speakers in the public record
Claim mix
Evidence policy
Every row below preserves an exact excerpt. Identified speakers are linked; unresolved voices are labeled and excluded from people counts.
Claim ledger
20 published records
01 / belief
“First thing I would do is try to talk everybody out of Brexit, which I think is a costly unforced error that will, ultimately, make the British people poorer and less influential in the world.”
02 / belief
“I think there’s a lot that can be done to close corporate tax shelters of many different kinds.”
03 / belief
“One is, Mexico has still some very serious rule-of-law issues, some very serious security issues associated with the risks of becoming more like Colombia than it wants to be, and I suspect those are larger issues than many outside Mexico appreciate.”
04 / belief
“If I think about the economy of Mexico, they have NAFTA, which I’ve always thought was a good idea.”
05 / belief
“One is, I would say your temptation is going to be to spread the butter uniformly across the bread and to try to do everything, and that your $100 million is a lot of money, but the budget of the city of St.”
06 / belief
“If I think about Russia and its recent history, I’m never sure if I should feel it’s gone better than we could have expected or if it’s gone worse.”
07 / belief
“I think there’s a lot of work to be done on market structure in digital industries, what constitutes increased competition, and what constitutes measures that foreclose competition.”
08 / belief
“I would say since maybe 2006, at least I have been expecting some kind of discrete event to occur in China, where we all say, “Uh-oh, now it’s happened.”
09 / belief
“If we think about the 1980s, there are a lot of models from that time — some coming from your research — where you have an infinite horizon model with a zero tax rate on capital income.”
10 / belief
“What the psychological effect of that would be on either of those actions on the global trading system, I think that’s harder to say.”
11 / evaluation
“I think the debt ceiling is, in some ways, more sui generis than it is a template for things to come.”
12 / evaluation
“There’s a fair amount of what’s really capital income in the form of unrealized capital gains that never gets taxed. So I think the right aggregate capital income tax rate is closer to what would go with a comprehensive income tax than it is to the alternative idea that capital income taxation is just a way of taxing future consumption, and therefore you should tax future consumption and present consumption at the same rate and the tax rate should be zero.”
13 / commitment
“What I’d say is, my instinct is the rational actor model is probably right, but that means I’m 80 percent sure that that’s right.”
14 / prediction
“If I think of unions being much stronger, even without worrying about allocative efficiency costs, I just see this one-time bump upwards of maybe 3, 4 percent, which would be a gain but wouldn’t change the fundamental reality on the ground.”
15 / prediction
“To take it to some place that’s outside of athletics, where I’ve been very struck, I think the evidence is overwhelming, or at least very strong, in favor of the so-called Flynn Effect, which suggests that all over the world, if you administer any kind of constant IQ test, averages in populations have been getting smarter for a long time.”
16 / evaluation
“I think, secondarily, the factors we were referring to a few moments ago, having to do with the reductions in workers’ leverage and bargaining power, means that a degree of tightness in labor markets that would in an earlier point have set off a wage spiral, no longer sets off a wage spiral because of how nervous workers are.”
17 / prediction
“I think I’d be inclined to say that, if there’s more monopoly, there’s more money going to monopoly firms where there’s a low propensity to spend it, both because the firms don’t invest and because the owners of the firms tend to be rich or endowments that have a low propensity to spend.”
18 / uncertainty
“I think we don’t fully understand why there are so many places where the long-term interest rate is more responsive to what the central bank in Washington does than what the central bank in their capital city does.”
19 / prediction
“I think a variety of the factors holding down investment — the demographic factor, the fact that you can buy an enormous amount of capital for a very low cost, think about my iPhone — all of that I think operates in the direction of meaning that we’re likely to have this phenomenon of low real interest rates and secular stagnation for quite a long time to come.”
20 / evaluation
“I don’t know where Ethereum is going. It makes me nervous whenever I see an asset where I think most of the demanders are buying it in the anticipation of selling it to somebody else at a higher price rather than buying it in the anticipation of some use they’ll put it to or some set of cash flows they’ll receive.”