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Conversations with Tyler / episode intelligence

Dani Rodrik on Premature Deindustrialization and Why the World is Second Best at Best

1 Oct 2015 26 published claims 2 attributable people
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Speakers in the public record

Dani RodrikTyler Cowen

Claim mix

belief 13evaluation 5prediction 5recommendation 2commitment 1

Evidence policy

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Claim ledger

The useful parts, with receipts.

26 published records

03 / belief

I think that when you look at what’s happening, on the one hand, in Brazil it shocks you that there is all this widespread corruption with Petrobras that seems to go all the way up.

“I think that when you look at what’s happening, on the one hand, in Brazil it shocks you that there is all this widespread corruption with Petrobras that seems to go all the way up.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

06 / belief

I think managing these kinds of tensions, especially when you’re in a sort of open economy and the markets are being flooded by cheap consumer goods from elsewhere, managing these transitions are very difficult, especially since these countries, and Africa, of course, particularly so, are torn apart by a number of additional cleavages of ethnic, language, regional, tribal, and so forth.

“I think managing these kinds of tensions, especially when you’re in a sort of open economy and the markets are being flooded by cheap consumer goods from elsewhere, managing these transitions are very difficult, especially since these countries, and Africa, of course, particularly so, are torn apart by a number of additional cleavages of ethnic, language, regional, tribal, and so forth.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

07 / belief

I think the Kurdish nationalists are, in Turkey at least, are very clear-sighted in understanding that full independence is neither in their interests nor something that they are likely to get.

“I think the Kurdish nationalists are, in Turkey at least, are very clear-sighted in understanding that full independence is neither in their interests nor something that they are likely to get.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

08 / belief

I think there was a possibility that the Turkish government would have reached a modus vivendi with the Kurds and some kind of resolution in the same way that the Basque problem in Spain was resolved.

“I think there was a possibility that the Turkish government would have reached a modus vivendi with the Kurds and some kind of resolution in the same way that the Basque problem in Spain was resolved.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

10 / belief

I think that there was a run up in the stock market and then they were, they did a bunch of things to try to prop the bubble, and eventually they did, and maybe it went a little bit too far.

“I think that there was a run up in the stock market and then they were, they did a bunch of things to try to prop the bubble, and eventually they did, and maybe it went a little bit too far.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

12 / belief

I think a lot of what’s wrong in economics is that it’s so much driven by people who first do engineering or math before they go into economics.

“I think a lot of what’s wrong in economics is that it’s so much driven by people who first do engineering or math before they go into economics.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

13 / belief

I think that in a thriving European Union, hopefully, if we get there, that basically a lot of regions can do a lot more things than they can do on their own.

“I think that in a thriving European Union, hopefully, if we get there, that basically a lot of regions can do a lot more things than they can do on their own.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

14 / belief

I think having the Netherlands in the North and Britain to the West, I think both the competition, the benchmarking, and the ideas, I think in that way geography made a difference.

“I think having the Netherlands in the North and Britain to the West, I think both the competition, the benchmarking, and the ideas, I think in that way geography made a difference.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

15 / belief

I think the fact that they’re dealing with this and are going to have it behind them five years from now, eventually, it’s going to put them .

“I think the fact that they’re dealing with this and are going to have it behind them five years from now, eventually, it’s going to put them .”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

17 / evaluation

I think that was terrible, and I we’ve now basically moved all the way to the other extreme, where empirical work also means doing something where you put 100 percent weight on internal validity, but very little thought into issues of external validity or the basic theory.

“I think that was terrible, and I we’ve now basically moved all the way to the other extreme, where empirical work also means doing something where you put 100 percent weight on internal validity, but very little thought into issues of external validity or the basic theory.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

20 / prediction

” Even if I think of your work on premature deindustrialization, if I think of Turkey in the 19th century, a big theme from my understanding is that Turkey is then prematurely industrializing, and that’s why the Ottoman Empire becomes the sick man of Europe.

“” Even if I think of your work on premature deindustrialization, if I think of Turkey in the 19th century, a big theme from my understanding is that Turkey is then prematurely industrializing, and that’s why the Ottoman Empire becomes the sick man of Europe.”
Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

21 / prediction

You’re never going to be able to just take that and transplant in a developing country because, technically speaking, the non-traded component of that technology, or the latent part of the technology that requires that adaptation to local contexts.

“You’re never going to be able to just take that and transplant in a developing country because, technically speaking, the non-traded component of that technology, or the latent part of the technology that requires that adaptation to local contexts.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

22 / evaluation

I’m all for empowering the median voter in Turkey or elsewhere, but all in the context of rules and practices that ensure equal treatment of minorities of all kind. That’s really the part that I think, for example, the whole political economy literature on democracy has missed out on, because essentially it’s just thinking about it in terms of elections and the median voter, not thinking about it in terms of these restraints on what the median voter can do.

“I’m all for empowering the median voter in Turkey or elsewhere, but all in the context of rules and practices that ensure equal treatment of minorities of all kind. That’s really the part that I think, for example, the whole political economy literature on democracy has missed out on, because essentially it’s just thinking about it in terms of elections and the median voter, not thinking about it in terms of these restraints on what the median voter can do.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

23 / prediction

I think we should expect lower return to it, is what I like to say, simply because I think the possibilities of industrialization in the sense that you could put, in the old days, 30, 35 percent of your labor force into manufacturing — that is not going to happen.

“I think we should expect lower return to it, is what I like to say, simply because I think the possibilities of industrialization in the sense that you could put, in the old days, 30, 35 percent of your labor force into manufacturing — that is not going to happen.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

24 / evaluation

The fact that we moved to a stage of the world where a country like China is able to exert such strong effect on world markets in manufacturing means that the opportunities for import substitution in manufacturing is significantly less today in the low income countries that have opened themselves up.

“The fact that we moved to a stage of the world where a country like China is able to exert such strong effect on world markets in manufacturing means that the opportunities for import substitution in manufacturing is significantly less today in the low income countries that have opened themselves up.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

25 / evaluation

The second thing, which I think is the microeconomics of why it is that manufacturing is so special is that manufacturing, standard, traditional manufacturing like making cars or garments or toys or wigs, has the feature that you can absorb a lot of very unskilled workers into that.

“The second thing, which I think is the microeconomics of why it is that manufacturing is so special is that manufacturing, standard, traditional manufacturing like making cars or garments or toys or wigs, has the feature that you can absorb a lot of very unskilled workers into that.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

26 / prediction

Not because I think that the marginal country is going to be less responsible than the countries that already have nuclear weapons, but just because the more countries that have them, the greater the chance that at least one of them will be irresponsible rises.

“Not because I think that the marginal country is going to be less responsible than the countries that already have nuclear weapons, but just because the more countries that have them, the greater the chance that at least one of them will be irresponsible rises.”
Speaker
Dani Rodrik
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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