Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
7 transcript-backed records
01 / evaluation
“I think, overall, his actions were widely popular in the United States, partly just because of the difference from what had happened right before.”
02 / evaluation
“When there is a banking crisis that starts in one place and spreads, the initial crisis might have been due to mistakes made by that individual bank, but the spread across the financial system is usually because the policymakers allowed nominal GDP to fall sharply.”
03 / evaluation
“I think that, again and again, when you look at these cases where there’s some sort of monetary policy mistake — America in 1929, Argentina in the late 1990s — you see the monetary policy mistake occurring first, in an otherwise healthy economy; then you see the financial crisis developing as nominal GDP is falling sharply.”
04 / evaluation
“I think monetary policy is one area where mistakes actually do occur fairly often, and you get outcomes that governments actually don’t want because they’re not thinking about the situation in the correct way.”
05 / evaluation
“I think that colored the views of policymakers in the early 1930s, made them reluctant to move away from fiat until the pain was so intense that politics forced them off of gold standard to fiat money.”
06 / evaluation
“Or there’s simply a cognitive error like you’re not thinking about the problem in the right way, which has also been an enormous problem in monetary economics because of confusion about what low interest rates mean and other things about monetary policy that confuse even policymakers, often, into thinking their policy stance is different from what it actually is.”
07 / evaluation
“When our instincts tell us that there’s something tautological about the correlation between real and nominal GDP in the United States, it’s because our instincts have recognized the fact that, in fact, most of the US business cycle is due to nominal shocks interacting with sticky wages.”