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Rob Wiblin

Published podcast speaker

Claims
25
Episodes
1
Shows
1
Named items
0

Claim ledger

What Rob said.

25 transcript-backed records

01 / belief

I agree that the current technology isn’t going to produce self-awareness, but it seems to me there’s some chance in the next couple of hundred years we’ll have computers that are both as smart as humans — maybe more so — and that there’s at least a good reason to think that they might have conscious experiences the way that humans do.

“I agree that the current technology isn’t going to produce self-awareness, but it seems to me there’s some chance in the next couple of hundred years we’ll have computers that are both as smart as humans — maybe more so — and that there’s at least a good reason to think that they might have conscious experiences the way that humans do.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

02 / belief

I agree that the practical problem gets very severe when you’re comparing humans and insects. But I think, in principle, the solution follows the same kind of process as when you’re comparing humans and other humans and chimps.

“I agree that the practical problem gets very severe when you’re comparing humans and insects. But I think, in principle, the solution follows the same kind of process as when you’re comparing humans and other humans and chimps.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

03 / belief

I think from memory in Superforecasting, that was perhaps the most important characteristic for making accurate forecasts, was that you had gone through the step of arguing actively for the other side.

“I think from memory in Superforecasting, that was perhaps the most important characteristic for making accurate forecasts, was that you had gone through the step of arguing actively for the other side.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

04 / belief

I found that that really stuck in my head for many years and became a bit of a rule of thumb to me, that when I see my credences moving out of the 40 to 60 percent range, I have to stop and really pause and think about whether the evidence is strong enough.

“I found that that really stuck in my head for many years and became a bit of a rule of thumb to me, that when I see my credences moving out of the 40 to 60 percent range, I have to stop and really pause and think about whether the evidence is strong enough.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

06 / belief

I think, in the effective altruism community, we tend to give top priority to making sure that people are working on a really pressing problem, a problem that has a really huge scale that plausibly you can solve, and also that it’s neglected by other people.

“I think, in the effective altruism community, we tend to give top priority to making sure that people are working on a really pressing problem, a problem that has a really huge scale that plausibly you can solve, and also that it’s neglected by other people.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

09 / belief

I think I agree that if the US stops growing that would be very bad, principally because of the cultural and political effects that that would have and perhaps that we’ve started to see over the last five years.

“I think I agree that if the US stops growing that would be very bad, principally because of the cultural and political effects that that would have and perhaps that we’ve started to see over the last five years.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

11 / evaluation

I guess many people have something like this intuition that, yeah, if you change the identities of people in the future, such that you can’t see any correspondence between them in the two different scenarios, then perhaps it doesn’t matter exactly what you do because there’s no significant person you can identify who’s worse off.

“I guess many people have something like this intuition that, yeah, if you change the identities of people in the future, such that you can’t see any correspondence between them in the two different scenarios, then perhaps it doesn’t matter exactly what you do because there’s no significant person you can identify who’s worse off.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

13 / belief

I think that’s fair, but it seems like over time, as our technology gets better, the number of people and the amount of expertise and the amount of security that you would need in order to pull off an operation like that is going down and down and down.

“I think that’s fair, but it seems like over time, as our technology gets better, the number of people and the amount of expertise and the amount of security that you would need in order to pull off an operation like that is going down and down and down.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

14 / belief

I suspect another problem there is that people worry whenever their welfare is too close to zero because they feel that it’s going to go negative, and negative experiences weigh very heavily on people’s minds.

“I suspect another problem there is that people worry whenever their welfare is too close to zero because they feel that it’s going to go negative, and negative experiences weigh very heavily on people’s minds.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

15 / belief

Yeah, I agree that’s worrying, but because we have these alternative explanations that we might just be the one chance event where life began, I still had some hope that we’ll get there, we’ll be the first ones to colonize at least this part of the universe.

“Yeah, I agree that’s worrying, but because we have these alternative explanations that we might just be the one chance event where life began, I still had some hope that we’ll get there, we’ll be the first ones to colonize at least this part of the universe.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

16 / belief

I guess summarizing the above, my view is that I’ve characterized you as kind of a total global, objectivist consequentialism, plus respectful of a nonaggression principle.

“I guess summarizing the above, my view is that I’ve characterized you as kind of a total global, objectivist consequentialism, plus respectful of a nonaggression principle.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

19 / belief

I’ll be shocked for us to still be eating animals the way that we produce them now in a couple hundred years because I suspect that we’ll produce meat in a much more efficient way that doesn’t involve torturing animals.

“I’ll be shocked for us to still be eating animals the way that we produce them now in a couple hundred years because I suspect that we’ll produce meat in a much more efficient way that doesn’t involve torturing animals.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

21 / observation

Perhaps another argument for lower liberalism would be — you’re saying that, basically, you think there’s a high chance that humans are going to drive themselves to extinction. The reason is a lack of coordination in conflict .

“Perhaps another argument for lower liberalism would be — you’re saying that, basically, you think there’s a high chance that humans are going to drive themselves to extinction. The reason is a lack of coordination in conflict .”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

22 / commitment

To this day, when people ask me to give a narrative like that, I just kind of reject it. I refuse to do it because I don’t believe the story I’m going to tell them.

“To this day, when people ask me to give a narrative like that, I just kind of reject it. I refuse to do it because I don’t believe the story I’m going to tell them.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

23 / belief

What are some occasions when your conception of human rights comes apart from the nonaggression principle? Because most of the examples I think you give in the book are cases where you’re using violence against someone.

“What are some occasions when your conception of human rights comes apart from the nonaggression principle? Because most of the examples I think you give in the book are cases where you’re using violence against someone.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

24 / prediction

I imagine that, if you were alive then, you would say that the risk of human extinction in the next hundred years would be fairly low. But then in the ’40s, we had the shock where we developed nuclear weapons, and suddenly, I think we would both agree, the risk of human extinction or the collapse of civilization went up quite substantially because, for the first time, we had the ability for one person or one country to basically wipe out most humans alive at the time.

“I imagine that, if you were alive then, you would say that the risk of human extinction in the next hundred years would be fairly low. But then in the ’40s, we had the shock where we developed nuclear weapons, and suddenly, I think we would both agree, the risk of human extinction or the collapse of civilization went up quite substantially because, for the first time, we had the ability for one person or one country to basically wipe out most humans alive at the time.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

25 / evaluation

Because often, what’s going on is people want to say, “If you change the number of people in the future, that can’t necessarily be good or bad because there’s no specific individual in both cases who is worse off or better off.

“Because often, what’s going on is people want to say, “If you change the number of people in the future, that can’t necessarily be good or bad because there’s no specific individual in both cases who is worse off or better off.”
Speaker
Rob Wiblin
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler
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