Rob Wiblin: belief

Transcript context

…I try all the more. I think the best way to go about keeping epistemic humility is to try to write out the arguments of the side you disagree with it. In part, I use Marginal Revolution as a vehicle for that. It’s a selfish use for me. When you try to write out someone else’s argument or even just present it orally, it’s like your own ego forces you to produce the better version. You don’t want to sound or come across like an idiot. But as you produce the better version, you become a bit invested in it. That’s irrational that you’re invested in it, but it’s countering your other irrationality of not liking it so much, and you’re setting off one passion against another, to use Madisonian language. I think that mostly works. Always try steel manning, not Straw manning, but put yourself in the position of having to pass the ideological Turing test. Can I express this as smartly as possible? I think from memory in Superforecasting, that was perhaps the most important characteristic for making accurate forecasts, was that you had gone through the step of arguing actively for the other side. Right.…

Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.