Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
8 transcript-backed records
01 / prediction
“By the way, I think the possibility that there will be shortages of labor in certain, especially manual tasks, is indeed, as you say, a possibility for optimism, but depends on how you deal with it also.”
02 / prediction
“In the next, when I wrote in 2024, so that would be next 10 years, so 2024 to 2034, I would expect exactly the same thing, that there will be one or two years of very rapid growth.”
03 / prediction
“Now, at the macro level, it’s more complicated because there are composition effects between like Walmart effects and things like that, so we can talk about those, but I think the evidence, at least the ones that I know, is very clear that automation will reduce the labor share.”
04 / prediction
“It did not use that establishment power just in the right way, creating its own weaknesses that made it much more vulnerable to outside attacks. That’s why I think we are now going back because we are at an interregnum period in which ideas are battling again.”
05 / prediction
“I think true decentralization would be much better served with more domain-specific models of AI and other approaches that really use high-quality data for specific things, which I think is the more promising thing.”
06 / prediction
“You also want to be careful because it turns out that there’s one surefire predictor of when a country democratizes — it’s economic crisis.”
07 / prediction
“Let’s be generous. That means that if you are going to increase your rate of schooling by 3 or 4 percent, and if there are no major human capital externalities — and we can come back to that — then that’s going to increase your GDP per capita by 25, 30 percent.”
08 / prediction
“For example, in the case of after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian mathematicians came here, and they took jobs from American mathematicians because they were actually better.”