Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
11 transcript-backed records
01 / evaluation
“For example, Atkinson has a paper showing that if you keep the accounting constant over the years, labor share hasn’t even fallen ever.”
02 / belief
“If a person has an intrinsic preference for accumulation, that’s just what they want, then I think your story is totally right.”
03 / evaluation
“If that increasing variety is fast enough, and there is no such increasing variety in the human sector, then you can get all of the relational goods you want, but it doesn’t matter for labor share.”
04 / belief
“Fair. But if we’re in the world where reproduction is still happening the way that it’s happening, I think… And this is a big question, I’m not making a prediction.”
05 / belief
“I think the open model thing is going to be a big point here. If we’re indeed in a world where the open models are six months behind the frontier—or nine months—then we’ll hit AGI, we’ll hit whatever, and in six months, everybody has access to this resource.”
06 / uncertainty
“We don’t have data on consumer demand elasticities. We don’t know what they are.”
07 / belief
“I think there is a world where it is concentrated, in which case it’s going to be really hard to index AGI.”
08 / prediction
“There are scenarios where you get AI technology being allocated and dissipating to Nigeria and developing countries, leveling the playing field, essentially giving them a level up as far as capabilities. But there’s another world where, because they don’t have enough resources, they’re not training the models, they don’t have the hardware, and they just completely get left behind.”
09 / preference
“The only way this relational story works—and this is what we need more data on—is if a human is not a horse in the sense that they are providing value from the output, where if you replace the human, the value of the output decreases.”
10 / evaluation
“Referring to Molly’s excellent essay, I think in some ways one of the worst scenarios is a drip scenario because of the political economy piece.”
11 / prediction
“Because humans are naturally scarce, if we have automation where a lot of other things stop being scarce, we will still have scarcity in the things that humans are involved in and in the loop for.”