Casey Winters: prediction

Transcript context

…Mm-hmm. [inaudible 00:24:25] Another thought is there's this meme that GBT-4, or 5, or 6, or 10 is going to replace product managers, and anytime some new feature comes out, people will put out these videos of, "Oh, look. They're doing all the PM's jobs." What's your take on the future of PM in AI, if any? Well, I think if you thought the PM job was just filling in the latest Reforge or Shreyas framework, and then getting that automatic FANG promotion every year and a half, then yeah, you're going to get replaced by AI. I think the real PM job is the least likely to get replaced over time because you need real subject matter expertise. You need to be trading off a lot of different types of things, and making good decisions for the company and for your customers. In terms of using AI now as a PM, I'd actually be cautious in the current iteration of the cycle for PMs. It's a tool that's trained on sounding smart rather than always necessarily being smart. I was at Eventbrite the other day, and someone was telling me how they were loving the new Notion AI integration. She asked me if I used it. I said, "No." She's like, "Ah, you totally need to. Hey, go ask it your bio. It's really cool." I said, "All right. Let's just do it on your screen," so she did and my bio said I started my career at Google, and worked on Google Trends, and a bunch of other products, none of which happened. It was just complete nonsense. It did have some stuff that did happen. It knew I worked at Eventbrite, and it knew I worked at Pinterest and stuff, but half of it was just completely made up. It sounded plausible, but it wasn't actually true. I think where I'm more inclined for PMs to try to get leverage out of something like GPT-4 is a lot of the tedious work that's maybe not their specialty to begin with. If you're not great at Excel or Google Sheets and you need to model something, you can ask it to format something. That'll probably be perfect, or how to get some Zapier integration to work. It probably knows how to do that really well. I think, at this point, it's a pretty good no-code to low-code tool. It's obviously going to become a lot more than that, but for a lot of these other use cases that people are touting, there's a decent chance, confidently tells you the wrong thing, and that would scare me as a PM. I've had the exact same experience. I had to describe what I've done, and it was like 70% mistaken.…

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