Geoffrey Moore: prediction

Transcript context

…Well, it's interesting about... And particularly right now, I mean the thing that's caught everybody's imagination is generative AI. So we should be thinking about things like open AI with Microsoft and Co-pilot and those kinds of things. Well, maybe not. It depends on what... So from a customer's point of view, there's AI in the early market, there's AI in the bowling alley, there's AI in the chasm, there's AI in the tornado, and there's AI on Main Street. So I mean, I would argue if you go to Microsoft Copilot, you're on Main Street, you're not taking any risk, you're experimenting with a new thing. It's kind of cool, makes you more productive. God bless. It's kind of like just an add-on to Teams or to your whole Office 365 suite. Stuff that's in the tornado right now, I don't know. I'm trying to think about what is the use case for Gen AI? I'm not sure there is one in the tornado, but the closest I would say is Salesforce is probably close enough. They have a sales co-pilot. They have a services copilot, right? I'm sure there marketing co-pilot. So you're going, but we're going to change our sales motion and we're going to use generative AI in line, in our performance on a very widespread, across our entire base. So all our salespeople are going to use this new tool. That would be okay. And that makes sense because the new tool... First of all, Salesforce has their own large language module. So it's not like you're going out to the open AI world and having all those issues. So you can do it and there's a very high productivity return at a modest risk, I think, and modest disruption. For the bowling alley you'd say, I don't know if this is bowling alley or early market, I'll say it's bowling alley. So if you're Sal Khan and you have the Khan Academy and you're saying, "Look, we want to provide educational resources for the world for young people." The problem with education right now is that particularly after the pandemic, you're a teacher you used to have... When you were a teacher in say K through 12, K through eight, you have a class of 30 kids and probably 10 to 15 of them are middle of the road and some number are actually significantly ahead and some number are behind. And your job as a teacher is to kind of work with that. Well, after the pandemic, you might have five different grade levels in the same classroom, not three or six even. That's an impossible problem. But if you said, "Look, we can use Gen AI tutoring and we can tune it to each one of those sixth grade levels." Now that's a teacher co-pilot, but that's a really specialized idea. So you go, "Well, that's amazing." And then if you wanted to go to the other side, "You say all these ad agencies say they do this really cool advertising, but I think I can do it myself with Gen AI and I'm going to sell it to other people." I mean, you can imagine a whole businesses that say we write legal opinions and we always start with Gen AI. sing, but I think I can do it myself with Gen AI and I'm going to sell it to other people." I mean, you can imagine a whole businesses that say we write legal opinions and we always start with Gen AI. We don't ship Gen AI, there's a human in the loop. We're going to do amazing or more images, maybe. We're going to design visual images with all the really cool stuff you could do. We're going to invent a new agency or a new kind of agency we're going to charge to... " I don't know what it would be, but the point is Gen AI I think can be absorbed by the marketplace at multiple places. As you were talking about that lawyer example, I was thinking part of the pitch would be... And it's also a lot cheaper, but that reminds me of this other post that you wrote, The Seven Deadly Sins of Crossing the Chasm. And I wanted to chat about some of these, and one of them is discounting before you cross the chasm. Can you talk about why that's something you want to avoid?…

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