Tim Scarfe: disagreement

Transcript context

…Mostly because people could give a fuck for scientific information. They just want porn. They sure shit got a lot of that. There was a there's a just because there's a supply of something does not imply that there is a demand of that something. First of all, second of all, I have a very persnickety thing. I think you might appreciate like a huge fraction of the world's information is still stored in books and graduate libraries. They didn't upload those yet to the Internet. Someone say, access to all the world's knowledge. I'm like, well, is that that's not how it works, but oh, maybe a large fraction of it. Right? But this is the there's a couple of problems with that. A lot of the world's knowledge sits on local databases and said bio labs and 3 people who work there and that database knows it and no 1 else does. So there's that problem. I would say I I take all of your comments in in very good faith. We're sure shit not gonna magic our way to intelligence. I know of a few folks whom I respect, but I find their positions curious that say we're like a few years from solving all potential problems. And like I read that shit and I'm like, man, holy I want to believe that's almost certainly not gonna happen in my assessment. What I will say though is I wouldn't bet against the general vibe of what Ray Kurzweil said back in the day. And what I would also do is attempt not to doubt things that are massively scalable in a way we already understand is likely to bear incredible amount of fruit. Paul Krugman, economist, Nobel laureate, fucking genius, had a the kind of quote that it just sucks. You know, you said 1 thing. He said like a 100 things. See 20 of those are just infections of political ideology, which if pressed on in an exam room, he would say I don't really believe maybe or I want to believe but I know they're not true. About 79 of them are like just spot on literally revolutionary economic work. He's the fucking man. And then the 1 was like the Internet will have roughly no big big impact than the fax machine. I just want to make sure that no 1 in their right mind says that about AI today because the clown show for shit people said in 2022 is already in full effect in 2025. And I'll say another thing, how many people predicted that the Turing test would be 2 things in 2024 passed convincingly, and I rolled away as it never was a test of anything. Great example of the McCordack effect. Yeah. Yeah. And and it's true. We passed the Turing test And we do not have Turing himself, he said that when we passed the Turing test, which is a behaviorist notion of intelligence, something obviously I disagree with, you need to know something about the mechanism. We've passed it. And we don't have intelligence. And that's kind of the point I'm making, right? We have intelligence. We don't have full human intelligence yet. Intelligence in my view is not 1 or 0. Intelligence is a spectrum. You agreed with us earlier. We're talking about viruses and bacteria. They have some kind of intelligence. I think we're scaling mount intelligence with these frontier models. And I think we're absolutely not there on every human capability yet. I think by around 2030, we'll be there with every human capability, which also means with many human capabilities and many non human capabilities, we will be so far beyond that, I'll say this, the transformational change to society will be massive by the late 20 twenties. In a few ways, I'll make predictions right now. Drug discovery is gonna be turned completely on its head because you'll be able to have a 99.9 percent chance of getting the right drug off a render alone, which is fucking nuts. Another 1 is, I just don't think people will have to drive their own cars much past 2028. And like, that's the thing. And kind of to your point, it's gonna happen. And the next day, and Sam Altman has said this, everyone's gonna, yeah, of course fucking cars drive themselves. Like, do you understand how difficult it was to get here? Do you understand how hard it is for a car to drive itself?…

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