Dan Shipper: evaluation

Transcript context

…Yeah. All right. So PM Designer thriving, killing- PM Designer thriving. I also just think generally the AI job apocalypse is not really a thing. Absolutely we see companies starting to reorganize and I think that makes a lot of sense. I think to be honest, a lot of the reorganization, you can say it's AI, but it's like we overhired and the company's not doing as well and all that kind of ... It was coming and this is a good excuse. But the mass unemployment thing I think that some AI CEOs are talking about, I think that's not going to happen. The pattern that I see so far, and again, I don't have a total crystal ball, but I do feel like we've seen enough of the new model drops to have some sense of how this is going is that what a new model drop does or what models do in general is they make yesterday's human competence cheap. So what I mean by that is they ingest all this data of what has happened already and they make it really cheap to deploy that in whatever situation you want as your own. And what happens then is this is a new power that everyone has, so it gets adopted super rapidly and suddenly that stuff is everywhere. It's suddenly anyone can make a landing page. There's new landing pages everywhere. Suddenly everyone can write. There's slop tweets everywhere. But what's interesting is because it's all coming from these models and everyone's using basically the same models, it all looks the same if you use it in the most default basic way. And so it becomes commoditized. It's not valuable anymore. And what humans do is we sort of go in there, and we're like, "Yeah," we have all this frozen human competence from yesterday. How do I use this to make something new and interesting? And I really think that structurally because of the way the models work, because of the financial incentives of model companies to make them compliant and aligned, structurally they're always going to be trailing behind those people who are taking the models and using them to make new expertise or make new things that haven't been done that way before for their very, very particular situation. And that stuff is going to get incorporated into the models, but again, it will create room for people to push further ahead. And I think that you see this in a small way in pretty much all the jobs is engineers. Suddenly everyone's an engineer, but that doesn't mean we fire the engineers. There's way more demand for engineers because you need the engineers to figure out, okay, this is all slop. How should this actually go in our code base? And I think that's something that the benchmarks rising doesn't really capture and it feels like a thing that will take a long time to change. People may be hearing in this prediction here of just, okay, the job apocalypse not going to, people are not going to be all fired. There's going to be human jobs remaining for quite a while. It may be almost too comforting because you probably have to change the way you operate to still have a job in the future. Do you have any sense of just like, here's what you need to do to not be one of these layoffs?…

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