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SF Compute: Commoditizing Compute to solve the GPU Bubble forever

11 Apr 2025 14 published claims 1 attributable person
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Speakers in the public record

Shawn Wang

Claim mix

belief 6evaluation 3recommendation 2prediction 2uncertainty 1

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The useful parts, with receipts.

14 published records

01 / evaluation

And like maybe OpenAI will default, but the backing by Microsoft kind of doesn't. And I think there's enough, like, generally, it looks like OpenAI is winning that you can make it's just a much better case than if you're selling to the pre-seed startup that just raised $30 million or something pre-revenue.

“And like maybe OpenAI will default, but the backing by Microsoft kind of doesn't. And I think there's enough, like, generally, it looks like OpenAI is winning that you can make it's just a much better case than if you're selling to the pre-seed startup that just raised $30 million or something pre-revenue.”
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Latent Space

02 / recommendation

You'd spend $50 million on hiring a software engineering team to replicate anything that you possibly did. So that means that the best way to make money in GPUs was to do basically exactly what CoreWeave did, which is go out and sign only long-term contracts, pretty much ignore the bottom end of the market completely, and then maximize your long-term contracts.

“You'd spend $50 million on hiring a software engineering team to replicate anything that you possibly did. So that means that the best way to make money in GPUs was to do basically exactly what CoreWeave did, which is go out and sign only long-term contracts, pretty much ignore the bottom end of the market completely, and then maximize your long-term contracts.”
Speaker
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Latent Space

04 / prediction

And with a cash settled future, you can go back to the data centers and you can say, lock in your price now and de-risk your entire position, which lets you get cheaper cost of capital and so on. And that we think will improve the entire industry because the marginal cost of compute is the risk.

“And with a cash settled future, you can go back to the data centers and you can say, lock in your price now and de-risk your entire position, which lets you get cheaper cost of capital and so on. And that we think will improve the entire industry because the marginal cost of compute is the risk.”
Speaker
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Latent Space

05 / recommendation

Yeah, monopsony. And so the optimal thing for you is a diverse set of customers who all are willing to pay at whatever price, because if you don't, somebody else will.

“Yeah, monopsony. And so the optimal thing for you is a diverse set of customers who all are willing to pay at whatever price, because if you don't, somebody else will.”
Speaker
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Latent Space

06 / uncertainty

I think, and I don't know, and so correct me if I'm wrong, and lots of people will have different opinions here, or I mean, not opinions, they'll have actual facts that differ from my facts.

“I think, and I don't know, and so correct me if I'm wrong, and lots of people will have different opinions here, or I mean, not opinions, they'll have actual facts that differ from my facts.”
Speaker
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Latent Space

08 / belief

Um, the, yeah, I think every time we tried to do the, the only caveat to this, the only caveat that we ever violate this rule with, uh, is when we're pitching San Francisco, I think San Francisco is amazing.

“Um, the, yeah, I think every time we tried to do the, the only caveat to this, the only caveat that we ever violate this rule with, uh, is when we're pitching San Francisco, I think San Francisco is amazing.”
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Latent Space

09 / belief

Room Service went for about nine months and then sort of had the same problem that I think every other competitor Room Service has, which is mostly people building a house.

“Room Service went for about nine months and then sort of had the same problem that I think every other competitor Room Service has, which is mostly people building a house.”
Speaker
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Latent Space

10 / evaluation

Somebody who bought a longer term contract and is like they bought for some period of time, their code doesn't work, and now they need to like sell off a little bit.

“Somebody who bought a longer term contract and is like they bought for some period of time, their code doesn't work, and now they need to like sell off a little bit.”
Speaker
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Latent Space

11 / belief

For those who are not familiar with derivatives markets, I can go ahead and say this because the point of being cash settled, which is something that you mentioned, which I think people might miss, is that you don't have to take physical delivery of the GPUs.

“For those who are not familiar with derivatives markets, I can go ahead and say this because the point of being cash settled, which is something that you mentioned, which I think people might miss, is that you don't have to take physical delivery of the GPUs.”
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Latent Space

12 / belief

I think I have more information than a lot of other people. And this makes me more vague of a spectator because I feel less certain or less confident than I think a lot of other people do.

“I think I have more information than a lot of other people. And this makes me more vague of a spectator because I feel less certain or less confident than I think a lot of other people do.”
Speaker
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Latent Space
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