Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
5 transcript-backed records
01 / prediction
“We expect that as the AI labs become more capable, they tell the government about this because they want government contracts, they want government support.”
02 / prediction
“Wait a second, I’m a little confused to hear you say that, because when I have seen people predicting AI milestones like Katja Grace’s expert surveys, they have almost always been too pessimistic from a point of view of how fast AI will advance.”
03 / prediction
“If you have a physics simulation available, then all of these real world bottlenecks don’t matter as much.”
04 / prediction
“Our scenario focuses on coding in particular because we think coding is what starts the intelligence explosion.”
05 / prediction
“We’re telling it “succeed on tasks, which is going to make you a power seeker, but also don’t seek power in these particular ways”. And in our scenario, we predict that this doesn’t work and that the AI learns to seek power and then hide it.”