Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
23 transcript-backed records
01 / uncertainty
“I don’t know it writes Chinese poetry, hypothetical, I know it does, but we haven’t tested for all possible capabilities and we are not explicitly designing them.”
02 / belief
“I think we can generalize it to just prisoners’ dilemma in general. Personal self-interest versus group interest.”
03 / belief
“If we had capability of ahead of the run, before the training run to register exactly what capabilities that next model will have at the end of the training run, and we accurately guessed all of them, I would say you’re right, “We can definitely go ahead with this run.”
04 / belief
“I really hope you are right. I think the scaling hypothesis is correct. We haven’t seen diminishing returns.”
05 / belief
“The previous model we learned about after we finished training it, what it was capable of.”
06 / evaluation
“You can look it up. But even if they’re wrong, I’m just saying this is right now the best we have, this is what humanity came up with as the predicted date.”
07 / belief
“I think we need that, but I would change the overall range. So right now it’s negative infinity to positive infinity pain-pleasure axis.”
08 / belief
“Any kid in the garage can train a model. So, a lot of it is, in my opinion, just safety theater, security theater where we saying, “Oh, it’s illegal to train models so big.”
09 / evaluation
“Partially, but we don’t scale for narrow AI for deterministic systems. You can test them, you have edge cases.”
10 / observation
“If we create general superintelligences, I don’t see a good outcome long-term for humanity. The only way to win this game is not to play it.”
11 / belief
“I mean, I can’t speak for other people, for all of them. I think some of them are very ambitious.”
12 / belief
“We are in a situation where people making more capable systems just need more resources. They don’t need to invent anything, in my opinion.”
13 / belief
“I think there is multiple Turing Award winners that is quite… You can have this one and one just came out kind of similar, “Managing Extreme-“ … one just came out kind of similar, managing extremely high risks.”
14 / belief
“I may be wrong, but I think Stuart Russell’s ideas are all about machines which are uncertain about what humans want and trying to learn better and better what we want.”
15 / uncertainty
“Many things are real on the internet, but I don’t think anyone, if I told them, “Sit down [inaudible 01:54:56] function to feel pain,” they would go beyond having an integer variable called pain and increasing the count. So we don’t know how to do it.”
16 / prediction
“If the only disagreement is that it will take decades, not years for everything I’m saying to materialize, then I can go with that.”
17 / observation
“We don’t have to be independent, but the point is you can be, and virtual reality is getting pretty good.”
18 / belief
“I think about a lot of things. So that is X-risk, existential risk, everyone’s dead.”
19 / prediction
“You basically have to perform an experiment on 8 billion humans without their consent. And even if they want to give you consent, they can’t because they cannot give informed consent.”
20 / evaluation
“The problem is that it’s very hard to separate capabilities work from safety work.”
21 / evaluation
“Absolutely true. But in another paper I argue that those accidents do not actually prevent people from continuing with research and actually they kind of serve like vaccines.”
22 / evaluation
“I have a paper where I equate passing Turing tests to solving AI complete problems because you can encode any questions about any domain into the Turing test.”
23 / observation
“There are people trying to accelerate those timelines, because they feel we’re not getting there quick enough.”