Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
21 transcript-backed records
01 / commitment
“In a theoretical sense, I will claim to identify with them, but in an emotional sense, I almost never think about them.”
02 / belief
“I think if you’re eager for these big innovative changes in how you look at things, I think there’s a peak, somewhere in the middle, perhaps.”
03 / belief
“I think many people favor prediction markets as a political signal of the kind of things they like in the world.”
04 / belief
“To be part of this collective enterprise where lots of us work together, discover things, tell each other, and then we all know more as a result over time—I think that’s a wonderful thing to be part of, and that’s what I hope to be part of.”
05 / prediction
“I predict that the Ems themselves will identify with other copies of themselves because that’s very straightforward.”
06 / observation
“The two main categories for the great filter are stuff before our point along the path and stuff after our point on the path. And the problem is that anything that gives us evidence that things before us on the path are easier is evidence suggesting it’s harder farther on the path, which is bad news for our future.”
07 / belief
“We think our first priority is to convince you of the facts of these motives, that they really are there, and we thought if we took on a really strong moral tone or connected this to political factions or something, you wouldn’t be persuaded by our arguments.”
08 / prediction
“I expect some of us are just better at being Machiavellian. They have better social skills, so we, social nerds, for example, are not so good at that.”
09 / belief
“Then we’re usually talking at some intermediate level, but it’s less clear which level. So I would say, for our book, we’re focused on relatively distal social explanations, which are more about the basic forces that shape our common social institutions.”
10 / belief
“I think you can take your proposition and make an interesting science fiction novel where there’s a great future .”
11 / belief
“I think when you’re really young, you don’t know enough to even have a view quake because a view quake is, you have to have some way of thinking about things that is then changed.”
12 / prediction
“The trend that I’m aware of is that when we have tools to help us do something, like remember phone numbers, we get worse at that thing because we offload the task onto the tool.”
13 / evaluation
“My stronger claim would be that policy analysts and social scientists who claim that they understand the social world well enough to make recommendations for changes—they should understand the elephant in the brain. They should have a better idea of hidden motives because they could think about which institutions that we might choose differently to have better outcomes.”
14 / preference
“It seems to me the priority is to go figure out more areas of life and see if the middle of the distribution is anywhere close to what people say. That seems, to me, much more valuable than trying to go figure out the variance because all this behavior is really high dimensional.”
15 / evaluation
“The claim we make in there is that, although we like to talk about conversation as if it was about imparting information and finding out useful things, more plausibly it’s about showing off your backpack of tools and skills in context.”
16 / evaluation
“I think art is roughly impressive things that are hard to do and that don’t seem to have much other function or purpose.”
17 / evaluation
“I think the degree to which nobody would find it impressive or appealing to see you do it.”
18 / prediction
“I’ve actually had friends of mine from a while ago who are musicians saying we should subsidize music because we’ll have more world peace.”
19 / evaluation
“There’s a sense in which most people don’t want to seem cynical because the people who seem cynical are not the sort of people you want to seem.”
20 / evaluation
“As usual, apparently, people like your conversations because you have some magic sauce, some special way that you can show that you get to people in a way that other people can’t.”
21 / preference
“I am a nerdy person. So personally, I prefer things to be more out in the open where I can have some idea what the heck’s going on, and I will notice them.”