Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Books, apps, and tools
book / recommends
“Yes, Monstrous Beauty is wonderful. Plus One is her book after that, which I recommend. It’s a secretly libertarian young-adult romance set in a world that comes after a pandemic. Ought to have lots of good book sales now.”
Claim ledger
3 transcript-backed records
01 / prediction
“Here’s why I think Bitcoin eventually will die — because it is a pure fiat-unbacked money.”
02 / prediction
“The essence of the habit — and this is a paper that John Campbell and I wrote in the 1990s — what we were trying to get at was not so much the level of the equity premium — why do stocks seem to pay reliably more than bonds, so much for so long?”
03 / prediction
“Let it grow at the interest rate. For you and me, that doesn’t work because the repo man comes calling.”