Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
16 transcript-backed records
01 / prediction
“It’s very hard for even a falling price of fossil fuels to get to nil. It is so cheap to generate wind and solar when you have built the expensive plant, and we will drive fossil fuels out of business.”
02 / commitment
“If we do not change Big Ag to be less conducive to erosion, we will start to lose productivity pretty soon.”
03 / commitment
“” To which I say, “Dudes, we will be long gone as a species at 10 degrees centigrade.”
04 / belief
“I think the economics profession on the topic of resource limitations — energy in particular, but metals and climate change — has been extravagantly poor, I mean remarkably lacking, with the one or two notable exceptions here and there, where economists have actually made a big point of resource and energy as key to the long term, but they’re all marginalized.”
05 / commitment
“I would say, better than 50/50, that we will indeed have — from an engineering point of view and science point of view — successful fusion.”
06 / belief
“I believe the housing markets around the world will spend the next big chunk of time unraveling and causing all manner of, perhaps, unexpected problems.”
07 / evaluation
“It’s harder because they’ve been looking for lithium now quite a few decades, and we have a pretty good idea where the best reserves are, and they are totally inadequate to the task.”
08 / preference
“I wanted to try and keep up with COVID, and I was hiding in the countryside, and I was doing 8, 9, 10, 11 hours of reading a day because, suddenly, climate became an investment issue.”
09 / evaluation
“Shorting is a complete mug’s game in almost any area, because once you’re short, you can lose 10 times your money, and you can only make a decent return if you’re right.”
10 / evaluation
“I think the world is in complete denial about ocean level rise, and one day when Miami gets an incredible flood, it will wake up and do something down in Miami.”
11 / prediction
“I think the fourth one is so similar to the other three, and the outcomes from the other three are so unique and interesting, that I am willing to bet that this one is going to be the same or similar.”
12 / evaluation
“For green tech, which we’re invested in — I’m worried that people will suspect that we’ve bribed politicians because this bill could not possibly have been better for the Grantham Foundation that has half its money, half its principal in early-stage green tech, all of which will benefit.”
13 / prediction
“I am optimistic, incidentally, that we will have a plentiful supply of green energy and that we will green the entire system.”
14 / prediction
“I suspect geothermal will also work, and I suspect it has a very good shot at being commercial in some parts, because we have just drilled hundreds of thousands of holes in fracking.”
15 / evaluation
“Yes, I think you have to say that she was amazingly successful because England was in one of its several periods of economic malaise and social malaise, in a way.”
16 / evaluation
“My quarterly letter after 9/11, I made exactly that point, that dealing with sudden shocks are impossibly difficult to predict, that after the ’87 crash, a lot of us thought that it would have consequences going deep into the future.”