Public evidence record
Published podcast speaker
Claim ledger
5 transcript-backed records
01 / belief
“I think that if they tried to do something like that, they would wire the money from an account that didn't have any money in it or something or send it to the wrong account.”
02 / belief
“I think a lot of people who are close to that tier and have some of the same personality types are in sales and corporate development and stuff like that where they're building a big network, they are constantly building out this giant levered balance sheet of favors.”
03 / belief
“I guess the bet would be that Korea is the country most likely to catch up to Taiwan today if Taiwan is no longer an option. But if you're trying to make the AI bet conditional on Taiwan bet, I think a lot of what you want to do is actually think about how you underwrite the Taiwan invasion bet because that's probably the thing with the bigger long term impact.”
04 / belief
“There's probably been some element of luck but over time the luck starts to wash out hopefully. But the younger you go, and this is probably just my experience of having kids, if you talk to your kids every day about multiplication they will start doing multiplication at a pretty early age and it's not that they are really really smart and they got to multiplication a couple years early.”
05 / belief
“I think you can look at other countries and try to see what threads of continuity there are between the pre-war and post-war order.”