Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedScott Horton: prediction
26 Jun 2025 Lex Fridman Podcast #473 – Iran War Debate: Nuclear Weapons, Trump, Peace, Power & the Middle East
“Who thinks that if they break out and try to start making nukes now that any hawks supporting this war will take responsibility for driving them to it.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Scott Horton
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 26 Jun 2025
- Publisher
- Lex Fridman Podcast
Transcript context
…st, before the Trinity test where we explode our first nuclear weapon. So I would say significant damage to Iran’s nuclear weapons program suggests that we potentially have rolled them back for years. I don’t know how many years and all those technical assessments are still to come, but significant damage. So the question as I said is have they retained enough capabilities that they’ve squirreled away, stored in covert sites, put under deeply buried tunnels to break out to nuclear weapons? Scott’s concern, it’s my concern, I’m sure it’s your concern that they could do that or have they set back the program so significantly that Khamenei then has to decide, “Will I be inviting another Israeli and or US attack if I try to break out? And if I do, do I risk my regime?” Who thinks that if they break out and try to start making nukes now that any hawks supporting this war will take responsibility for driving them to it. So the suggestion you’re making is we’re actually driving as opposed to doing the opposite, we’re actually driving them to develop nuclear weapons.…
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