Dwarkesh Patel: uncertainty

Transcript context

…I do think this is underrated to some degree. To the extent that you don't instantly get a doubling of the world's population in 2028. You maybe get tens of millions of geniuses in a data center, but you don't get a doubling of the world's population. So a lot depends on exactly how smart they are, exactly how efficient the models are at thinking about this kind of stuff. Let's do some rough math, to fact check the H100 thing. You could probably run a 100B model, do about 1,000 tokens or something like that on an H100. 1,000 tokens a second. Humans are what? How fast can a human talk? There was a really interesting paper. I don't know if you saw this. Humans think at 10 tokens a second. Did you see this paper? No.…

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