Demis Hassabis: evaluation

Transcript context

…Exactly. And then also to experience the correct prediction where something will come and how it’s going to evolve. It’s incredible. You’ve estimated that we’ll have AGI by 2030, so there’s interesting questions around that. How will we actually know that we got there and what may be the move quote, “Move 37” of AGI. My estimate is sort of 50% chance by in the next five years, so by 2030 let’s say. So I think there’s a good chance that that could happen. Part of it is what is your definition of AGI? Of course people arguing about that now and mind’s quite a high bar and always has been of can we match the cognitive functions that the brain has? So we know our brains are pretty much general Turing machines approximate, and of course we created incredible modern civilization with our minds. So that also speaks to how general the brain is. And for us to know we have a true AGI, we would have to make sure that it has all those capabilities. It isn’t kind of a jagged intelligence where some things, it’s really good at, like today’s systems, but other things it’s really flawed at. And that’s what we currently have with today’s systems. They’re not consistent. So you’d want that consistency of intelligence across the board. And then we have some missing, I think, capabilities like the true invention capabilities and creativity that we were talking about earlier. So you’d want to see those. How you test that? I think you just test it. One way to do it would be kind of brute force test of tens of thousands of cognitive tasks that we know that humans can do. And maybe also make the system available to a few hundred of the world’s top experts, the Terence Taos of each subject area and give them a month or two and see if they can find an obvious flaw in the system. And if they can’t, then I think you can be pretty confident we have a fully general system. Maybe to push back a little bit, it seems like humans are really incredible as the intelligence improves across all domains to take it for granted, like you mentioned, Terence Tao, these brilliant experts. They might quickly in a span of weeks, take for granted all the incredible things it can do and then focus in on, well, aha, right there. I consider myself, first of all, human. I identify as human. Some people listen to me talk and they’re like, “That guy is not good at talking the stuttering.” So even humans have obvious across domains limits, even just outside of calc, mathematics and physics and so on. I wonder if it will take something like a Move 37, so on the positive side versus a barrage of 10,000 cognitive tasks where it’ll be one or two where it’s like, holy shit, this is special.…

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