Shawn Wang: belief

Transcript context

…is the year. No, no, but well, you know, the anatomy of autonomy that was April 2023, you know, so obviously there's been belief for a while. But I think now the models are, I would say maybe the last, yeah. Two months. I made a big push in like capability for like 3. 6, 4. 1. Ilya saying the word agentic on stage at Eurips, it's a big deal. Satya, I think also saying that a lot these days. I mean, Sam has been saying that for a while now. So DeepMind, when they announced Gemini 2. 0, they announced Deep Research, but also Project Mariner, which is a browser agent, which is their computer use type thing, as well as Jules, which is their code agent. And I think. That basically complements with whatever OpenAI is shipping [01:41:00] next year, which is codename operator, which is their agent thing. It makes sense that if it actually replaces a junior employee, they will charge 2, 000 for it. Yeah, I think that's my whole, I did this post, it's pinned on my Twitter, so you can find it easily, but about skill floor and skill ceiling in jobs. And I think the skill floor more and more, I think 2025 will be the first year where the AI sets the skill floor. Overall, you know, I don't think that has been true in the past, but yeah, I think now really, like, you know, if Devon works, if all these customer support agents are working. So now to be a customer support person, you need to be better than an agent because the economics just don't work. I think the same is going to happen to in software engineering, which I think the skill floor is very low. You know, like there's a lot of people doing software engineering that are really not that good. So I'm curious to see it. And the next year of the recap, what other jobs are going to have that change?…

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