Dwarkesh Patel: belief

Transcript context

…And a decade, or two after, the world is fantastic. Robotics is solved, and you start to get radical abundance basically provided that you have all the policies set up necessary to permit building. You end up with that same change like the before vs. after photos of Shanghai where 20 years on, it's this dramatically transformed city. A lot of places in the world probably end up like that over that two-decade period. But we need to do our best to estimate if this is actually what is on track to happen. Build SWE-bench, but for all the other forms of white collar work, and measure, and track. That's a great thing that governments should be doing by the way, trying to break down the functions of their economy into measurable tasks, and figuring out what does the curve actually look like for that? They might be a bit shocked by the progress there. There's no SWE-bench for a tax eval. I don't have all the answers here, but then we need to figure out a way to share the proceeds of this economy broadly across people, or invest heavily in robotics, and collect the data so that we get robotics faster, and we get material abundance faster. Invest in biological research that we get, but all that faster. Basically try and pull forward the radical upside, because otherwise you have a pretty dark section. I think one thing that's not appreciated enough is how much of our leverage on the future—given the fact that our labor isn't going to be worth that much—comes from our economic, and political systems surviving. For your million X'd S&P equity to mean something, for your contracts to mean anything, for the government to be able to tax the AI labor, and give you a UBI off of that, that requires our legal institutions, our economic institutions, our financial rails surviving into the future. Yes.…

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