Ben Gilbert: prediction

Transcript context

…Okay, bear and bull. Let's do it. Okay, bear. Before I actually go into it, a tongue in cheek joke is if they ever get to stop making the insane margins that they do on FX transactions, that's the ultimate bear case. It's something like a hundred times the margin that they make on domestic ones. If you look at how Visa breaks out segments, you're like, oh, my God, the international transactions are ludicrously profitable whenever they have to do a currency conversion. That's worth knowing when you're trying to understand the shape of the business. The more international, the better for them. But my real bear case is that their business model has basically always been tied to the digitization of consumer payments. Ever since they rolled out the three key technologies you were talking about, David. At this point in global history, which is amazing we're finally here, over 50% of consumer payments to merchants go on cards now. It took forever to get here, 40 years or something like that, 50 years. But we will start decelerating because we've already shifted more than half the payments to happen on cards. We're on the back half of the adoption curve.…

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