Evidence receipt / uncertainty
Published · transcript-backedTyler Cowen: uncertainty
28 Sept 2022 Dwarkesh Podcast Tyler Cowen - Talent, Collapse, & Pessimism of Sex
“I don't know what the function looks like. It just seems to me that today, we have enough diverse sources of ideas, enough wealth, enough different universities, research labs, that it ought not to go too badly.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- uncertainty
- Recorded
- 28 Sept 2022
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…Right. Is it just like a sine wave where you'll just have periods of easy-grab innovations and then harder-grab? Or is there something particular about this stagnation period? I don't know what the function looks like. It just seems to me that today, we have enough diverse sources of ideas, enough wealth, enough different universities, research labs, that it ought not to go too badly. There's an awful lot of conformity, but it doesn't seem that absolute or extreme. With something like mRNA work, right. AI is making a lot of progress, fusion is being talked about in a serious way. It doesn't seem that grim to me. What I find interesting is that you are an optimist in the short term, given this uncertainty, but in the long term, given the uncertainty about the future of human civilization, you're a pessimist.…
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