Shawn Wang: prediction

Transcript context

…have a different one for that Think unanswered question, I guess? I dunno if this is a good answer, but you know, Bob McGrew we had on the podcast and he was talking about like the rule of nines they have at open ai where to go from 90% reliability to 99, it's an order of magnitude increase in compute and then 99 to 99.9 order of magnitude increase. And that happens every two to three years. And so I think how are we going to scale sort of accordingly? This sort of next part, I think there's a lot of unanswered questions, just like from a hardware perspective. And then I think as part of that, from the availability perspective, like is Nvidia just going to continue to be dominant? Like obviously AWS is going hard into what's their train chips? Mm-hmm. I'm blank on that. Thank you. And so I think like there's a big ecosystem around kuda that's obviously allowed Nvidia to remain dominant, but just what's going to happen and is there anyone's going? Is there anyone that's going to come sort of combat that to increase the availability GPUs? Or are we just gonna be constrained going forward when we actually need way more compute going forward? Yeah. My quick thoughts. I've, I've been I'm the only individual named, there's an investor in Medex which is kind of like really funny 'cause everyone else has funds and no knows just me. And and it's, it's, it's, there's a, there's an interest, like there are all these like Nvidia startups, like, sorry dedicated silicon startups that are coming up and, and trying to challenge that. And the simple answer is like these GPUs are the most general thing is possible by, by design. That's why they do gaming and crypto and ai. And I think as long as the architecture seems, seems stable, it seems like there's a case to be made for for that. The only question is who will win that? And obviously there's a whole bunch of competitors, including I think AMD's trying to, you know, to, to make a play for it. But so will AWS and so will, you know, every other, like Microsoft has a chip, Facebook has a chip so who knows who will win that. It, it just, it's very interesting that like, this seems to be such a valuable prize. Like it's. Freaking Nvidia that you're competing with. Yeah. And no one has really made a real d there yet. But so I, I kind of, I kind of agree with you, but like, I think that basically it's all about stability of workload and as long as it's a bet on like the depth of transformers basically. And if you are fine with that, like even and I think like the, even a state space model, people would agree that like, it, it wouldn't really change that much. And probably I think the, the overall consensus is that you don't even use state space models in individually. Like you would use them in a mixture with transformers anyway. Yeah. So then like, yeah, just go bet on transformers and bake it into the chip and you'll have much, way more you know, basically Asics like for transformers and that's fine. And, and so like prima fassy, there should be a company that wins that. Yeah. I don't know who will win. Yeah. I wish we knew. Yeah, I think that, I think anyone, you have to start basically after 20 19, 20 20. Because anyone started before that, we'll still be too general. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Yeah. Because you, transformers hadn't won yet one at the time. I have one more. It, the, the, I think that the most emergent one that came out of the New York conference that I did was age agent authentication. Mm. I think literally the, like the information just published a, like, this is something that they're worried about, which is when operator or whoever accesses your website on behalf of you, how does it indicate that it's not you, but it's, it's an agent of you. And I think like my general philosophy on agent experience or any of the sort of like reinvention of every part of the stack for agents is the all not, not necessary except for this agent off thing. Like we, we really need to, to be able to like new, new SSO effectively for agents. Is it gonna be crypto? Both crypto people are really amped about the…

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