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Evidence receipt / belief

Published · transcript-backed

Tyler Cowen: belief

5 May 2021 Conversations with Tyler Daniel Carpenter on Smart Regulation

“If we think about testing for COVID-19, starting maybe with Paul Romer and Glen Weyl, who has been on this podcast, Michael Mina, a variety of commentators, Alex Tabarrok, now Ezra Klein — all have believed, and in some cases shown using measurements, mathematics, statistics, that if much earlier COVID-19 testing had been available, although imperfect, that the United States would have been much better off.”

— Tyler Cowen

Source trail

Everything needed to verify it.

Speaker
Tyler Cowen
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
belief
Recorded
5 May 2021
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

Transcript context

…Right. Excellent. Good question. I’ve thought about this a little bit. I think there’s a lot of room for flexibility in the current system. One of the things that I try to say, I’m happy to criticize the FDA on any number of things, and I’m sure we’ll get a chance in what time we have today, but there’s actually been a fair degree of flexibility. Maybe it’s come slower than you might hope for in cancer, but cancer is sui generis in many respects. Adherence rates are very high because a lot of the drugs are given just directly in the clinic. It’s a community of researchers that is essentially highly closed. There are some doctors here and there who do things, but it’s governed immensely by ASCO. There’s a kind of a community of practice there. What the FDA does in a lot of these cases is allows for a molecule to be approved, say, cisplatin would be an example of the first platinum-based chemotherapy, and then basically knows — I think the FDA knows that when a lot of these molecules are out there, there’s going to be off-label prescribing. That’s not to say, however, that off-label prescribing is not regulated. Whether something is on the label or not is still a significant decision. I’ve written about the case of bevacizumab for breast cancer, and that was a pretty significant decision by the FDA, one that a number of industrial interests fought against pretty hard, in part because they knew that money was on the line. If we think about testing for COVID-19, starting maybe with Paul Romer and Glen Weyl, who has been on this podcast, Michael Mina, a variety of commentators, Alex Tabarrok, now Ezra Klein — all have believed, and in some cases shown using measurements, mathematics, statistics, that if much earlier COVID-19 testing had been available, although imperfect, that the United States would have been much better off. The FDA only now, this week in the end of March, is allowing such testing. Doesn’t that verify the old-style Sam Peltzman argument that the FDA is too risk averse, too slow? And when the FDA finally did let some of that testing through, you had to do it with a prescription, which seems to make no sense under any worldview. Was Sam Peltzman right about the FDA? Now, let me just say I agree with the criticism of the FDA on testing, and I’m pretty sure I mentioned this to a reporter back in the spring, I don’t know whether they ever . . . I’ve said this to a number of folks. For what it’s worth, again, keep in mind that that’s actually not the same division that approves drugs, which by the way, is not the same division that Sam Peltzman critiqued, so I don’t think it verifies Sam Peltzman, and it’s not clear to me . . . We talked about —…

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