Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedCasey Handmer: belief
15 Aug 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer
“I suspect that the hardest thing to make will always be the silicon, like the GPUs.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Casey Handmer
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 15 Aug 2025
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…Let's say new load. For new load, 2035, etc. If eventually you're right that we'll pave the earth in solar panels to sustain quadrillions of AI souls, what is the pace of that? The question to ask is, what is the major constraint on that ramp up? Then everything else will just draft in behind. I suspect that the hardest thing to make will always be the silicon, like the GPUs. So the question is really, “How quickly does TSMC ramp up its production of GPUs?” That's a question for you, not for me. I'll use some numbers that AI 2027 used for their compute forecast. Even if you don't buy their singularity thing, I think they did a reasonably good job with crunching the numbers on their compute forecast. I think they said there's on the order of 10 million H100 equivalents in the world today. I think they said by 2028 there'd be 100 million, so basically 10x more H100 equivalents in the world.…
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