Ben Gilbert: belief

Transcript context

…Yup, and decade plus with further innovations and iterations that are going to come. Yeah, Eli Lilly has this one in the pipeline called Retatrutide that is a triple agonist, that adds yet another hormone to the mix. I think, assuming that Novo stays neck and neck with Eli Lilly as they both keep coming out with better and better versions, this could be the next Humira or potentially much bigger than Humira. I think the defensibility is an open question for how many years, but at least the next decade. One other downside that I think you didn't point to specifically, but you meant in saying there's some unknown downside to this, there are some early studies that are showing that you lose more lean muscle mass when you're on a GLP-1 than if you were just doing diet and exercise. When you're losing weight, normally you lose 25% lean muscle. These early studies are showing something like 40%. That would be a bare case is that we learn a couple years from now like, oh, man, this is actually way worse for some set of people that could lose weight through diet and exercise. But if you're obese, it's still probably better to lose weight even if a disproportionate amount of it is lean muscle mass. But I think there's this open question of like, is there a boogeyman in the closet like that? Or is that a significant enough boogeyman to really change things? Yup. It's probably also worth mentioning quickly here before we wrap, one potential boogeyman that is out there people have talked about is suicidal thoughts. As best as we can tell from the research, it seems like that's not a major risk with these drugs. Based on the broad population studies, certainly that's what Novo Nordisk says. Regulators have not indicated that that is an actual issue. But that narrative is out there and we don't want to go through the episode and not mention it. That could be one of these boogeymen for these drugs.…

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