Tyler Cowen: belief

Transcript context

…Okay, I think it’s the case that probably political institutions and our decision-making capacity isn’t improving as quickly as our technological capabilities. And I wish it were the other way around that our wisdom and prudence and ability to make decisions that are not risky was maybe moving faster than our technology. But see, I see it the other way around. If you look at data on economic growth, you see huge productivity improvements: China, India, basically free-riding on existing technologies, not usually making them better. It’s just managing companies better, having better incentives in companies. If the world economy grew 4-point-whatever percent last year, way more of that, say, 4.8 percent, is coming from better management, better institutions than is coming from new technology. Maybe 1 percent of it is coming from new technology and the rest from better management — in some cases, growing population, capital resources. So institutions are way out-racing technology right now. Again, I’m not taking that for granted, but I think people would be much more optimistic if they viewed it in that light. We’re both big fans of Philip Tetlock and his work . . .…

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