Peter Deng: prediction

Transcript context

…Yeah, I just had Mike Krieger on the podcast. So, it's interesting, there's two tensions here. One is just the product doesn't matter in a lot of really successful companies. It's secondary to the cars, the drivers, the GPS and the phone. And then on the other hand, there doesn't need to be a technological breakthrough to build a huge business. It's almost like if there's no technological breakthrough, then the product matters. Facebook is an example. Basically, it's like a database of connections, but what allowed an Instagram, what allowed them to breakthrough, and there's classically competitors at the time. Was the experience, was it a lot better? And then maybe on the flip side, if the experience doesn't matter, then it's the breakthrough is on the operations and other... Does that resonate? Is that kind of what you're saying? It does resonate. I think both have to be true. But also I would say that even if you did found a company that has a huge technological breakthrough. Very shortly, I think that the product experience will start mattering, because how long does that technological advantage last before humans wisen up to be like, "Well, this is not the product I want to use. I use it a little bit differently and this is more ergonomic for me?" Et cetera. So, I think that what you said is a beautiful summary. I also think that a point in time in a company's history will also determine what is going to be more important. This is, especially, interesting for companies building on top of LLMs and AI infrastructure, where you're essentially saying, you don't need to have some kind of technological breakthrough to build something valuable if you can create a really special, unique experience that unlocks the potential of this super intelligence.…

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