Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedTyler Cowen: belief
28 Sept 2022 Dwarkesh Podcast Tyler Cowen - Talent, Collapse, & Pessimism of Sex
“I think my chance of identifying great novelists is very low. And it's one reason why it's not something I try to do.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 28 Sept 2022
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…That’s interesting. I wanted to backtest some of your methods of finding talent, but for certain people. So we just talked about Haruki Murakami; let's use him as an example. In his 30s, I believe he was running a bar. The novelist Haruki Murakami is just running a bar, right? It doesn't have to be him in particular, but just generally think of like a 30-year-old–– you go to Japan, you go to a bar, you start talking to the bartender who also happens to be in the place. What would the conversation look like? How would you identify that this person could be a great novelist or anything? I think my chance of identifying great novelists is very low. And it's one reason why it's not something I try to do. Interesting. Well, why is that?…
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