Keyu Jin: belief

Transcript context

…So can you describe the DeepSeek moment and DeepSeek as it represents what China’s thinking about in the space of AI? And does China have a chance at outrunning US in the AI race? DeepSeek was a surprise to the world, but I don’t think it was that much of a surprise to the same degree to the Chinese. And remember that DeepSeek happened in times of crisis, urgency, not in times of comfort. A lot of these technological breakthroughs and leapfrogging happens in times of crisis. This is called crisis innovation. And you got to thank the US for that. When the Chinese were comfortably importing chips from the US, the whole industry stalled for 20 years. I mean, why would you plow in billions, tens and billions and even more when you can just import the best? You don’t want to do your own innovation. It’s because of these export controls, these sanctions on these companies, that Chinese companies in the Chinese state felt an existential crisis a few years ago by being cut off from these critical components. And guess what happened? In a short amount of time, a degree of domestic capacity ramping up and catch up has been nothing short of remarkable. Again, thanks to US truculence on technology. Now, I’m sure there are many aspects of hyperbole related to DeepSeek, but it just shows you that the gap is much smaller between the China and the US on leading edge technologies than what was expected that these export controls were not effective. They may have even backfired. And it shows you that China has this relentless focus on taking some of the existing technologies and using scale and the advantages to cost and to diffuse. And this is just the beginning. I think it will happen in many other industries as well, including in semiconductors, and that’s a Chinese approach. Now, there’s an interesting dilemma here, which is that this is happening in a time of extreme economic softness, slowdown and missed uncertainty, trade wars, a lack of confidence, slowdown in private investment and consumption, a withdrawal of foreign investment from China, especially the US venture funding. Imagine what China would’ve been like, let’s say if the economy was doing better. But you could also argue that it’s because people feel threatened that they make more leaves. Now, I wish the world is not… We don’t have to drive each other to the corners to do something great, but that is the reality. And I don’t think that there’s an easy say between who wins because I think the winning idea is part of the old playbook. You’re all kind of part of a network. Different countries, different players have different choke points on each other. I don’t think it’s just about the US and China. dea is part of the old playbook. You’re all kind of part of a network. Different countries, different players have different choke points on each other. I don’t think it’s just about the US and China. And what’s more, you use your leverage once, and that leverage has a half-life. It becomes a lot less effective the second time around because other countries, other companies are going to try to substitute away. If China uses the rare earth leverage, which I think it is now a little bit, there will be alternatives and substitutes. Got to be very, very careful of what coercion leverage means. Same thing with the US, right? So I think this is all the old thinking of who wins, who dominates. I think we need a new playbook.…

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