David Rosenthal: uncertainty

Transcript context

…Yeah, that's a fair point. I also shouldn't have said 2300. I said that because I couldn't think of Elon’s timeline to actually get a million people up there, but it's much sooner. You're right. There are potentially incremental A plusses. I don't know—I actually should know this—what the goal of Starlink is, how much internet do we intend to provide to how many people and at what price? There’s some business case for just operating Starlink is a really good business to be in and might be a $30 billion enterprise value thing on its own. I don't know if that's true, I suspect it's not. They might be, it might be more. We know that they expect to put $10 billion worth of CapEx into it, both from that's CapEx funded by cash flow from other projects within SpaceX. A lot of the primary capital that they've raised recently has been for Starlink. I don't know. Would it be reasonable to put $10 billion of CapEx into something if you didn't think you could generate $30 plus billion in revenue out of it? That's a good point. I haven't seen the pitch deck, but I'm sure it says something like that. Not to mention, they'll continue to pull away in the launch market. Falcon 9 is just a workhorse and an amazing business of doing these launches. For the next 3-4 years until they really have Starship humming, if they can actually take up to a month, they'll do $1.4 billion a year in revenue just from the Falcon 9 launches. I don't know what kind of multiple you want to apply to that or if we should figure out actually what the EBITDA margin is and do it that way. Yeah, it's good business.…

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